XOM Options Signal Bullish Bet: Calls at $120–$125 Highlight Upside Breakout Potential

• XOM trades at $120.01, up 0.39% with volume surging past 7 million shares.
• Options call open interest spikes at $120 and $125 strikes for next Friday’s expiration, hinting at institutional bullishness.
• Analysts raise price targets to $131.45 avg, with Piper Sandler and Morgan Stanley backing XOM with Buy ratings.

Here’s the takeaway: XOM’s options market is loaded with call bias at key strikes, technicals trend higher, and fundamentals align with a potential breakout above $120. This isn’t just noise—it’s a setup.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in OTM Calls

Let’s start with the options chain. For next Friday’s expiration (Dec 19), XOM20251219C120 and XOM20251219C125 dominate with 43,390 and 21,813 open interest respectively. That’s not random—it’s a signal. Big players are positioning for a move above $120, the current price, and even further to $125. Meanwhile, put open interest is concentrated at lower strikes ($110–$115), suggesting limited downside fear. The put/call ratio of 0.686 (calls > puts) reinforces this imbalance.

But here’s the catch: If XOM fails to break above $120.04 (Bollinger Upper Band), those heavy call positions could trigger profit-taking or selling pressure. Watch the $120.04 level—it’s a psychological and technical hinge point.

News Flow Fuels the Bull Case

The recent analyst chatter? All green flags. Piper Sandler’s $144 target and Morgan Stanley’s $137 price tag aren’t outliers. Exxon’s 2030 plan—doubling Permian production and prioritizing oil/gas—backs this up. Think of it like a ship with a new captain: the strategy is clear, and the crew (analysts) are betting on a smooth voyage.

But don’t ignore the B of A tweak. Lowering their target to $118 shows some near-term caution. Retail traders might hesitate, but that’s where the opportunity lies. A rebound off $119.11 (today’s intraday low) could spark a rally if buyers step in.

Trade Ideas: Calls, Stock, and Strategic Entries

For options players: XOM20251219C120 is the most liquid and cost-effective bet. If XOM closes above $120.04 by Friday, this strike could see explosive gains. For a longer play, XOM20251219C125 offers leverage if the stock surges past $122.20 (30D support/resistance).

Stock traders: Consider entries near $119.11 (today’s low) with a stop just below $118.26 (200D support). Target $122.20 first, then $124.50 (where the $124 call OI lives). For a hedged approach, buy the XOM20251219C120 and sell the XOM20251219P119 to create a risk-defined spread.

Volatility on the Horizon

XOM isn’t just trending higher—it’s dancing on a tightrope. The options data and analyst chatter scream for a breakout, but the Bollinger Bands and RSI (57.75) suggest caution. If the stock holds above $119.11, the bulls control the narrative. Below that? Watch for a test of $115.88 (30D support). Either way, the next 72 hours will tell us if this is a rally or a rally’s first step.

Bottom line: XOM’s options, technicals, and fundamentals are in sync for a bullish push. The question isn’t if—it’s how high.