XOM Options Signal Bullish Bet: Calls at $120–$125 Dominate as RSI Hovers Near 58

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) trades at $117.93, down 0.92% from $119.03, but technicals still show a short-term bullish trend with a Bullish Engulfing candle.
• Options market shows call dominance: 621,065 open interest in calls vs. 420,613 in puts (ratio: 0.677), with heavy call volume at $120 and $125 strikes.
• Key support near $115.93 (intraday low) and resistance at $120.37 (Bollinger Upper Band) define the near-term battleground.

Here’s the takeaway: XOM’s options activity and technicals suggest a high-probability bullish setup, but traders should watch for a breakdown below $115.93 to avoid getting caught in a false breakout.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market isn’t whispering—it’s shouting. For Friday expiration, $120 and $125 calls dominate open interest (38,243 and 27,978 contracts, respectively), while puts at $115 and $110 (8,992 and 8,721 OI) act as a safety net for downside. This isn’t random noise: it’s a structured bet on a $120+ move before the weekend.

But here’s the catch: the Put/Call ratio of 0.677 (calls > puts) suggests aggressive bullishness, which can sometimes precede a pullback. Think of it like a spring—compress it too much, and it snaps back. If XOM fails to break above $120.37, those heavy call strikes could become a gravity well, dragging the stock lower as traders scramble to exit losing positions.

No Block Trades, But Macro Forces Are at Play

There’s no blockbuster block trading to explain this move, but that doesn’t matter. The market is pricing in oil price resilience and Exxon’s dividend yield of 3.8%, which keeps income seekers buying calls and puts as insurance. Without headline news, this is purely a technical and sentiment-driven trade—and right now, the charts are in bullish mode.

How to Play This: Specific Trade Ideas

For options traders, the most compelling setup is the $120 call expiring Friday. Why? The strike has the highest open interest, meaning it’s a liquidity magnet. If XOM closes above $120.37 (Bollinger Upper Band), these calls could explode in value. For a slightly longer timeline, the $124 call expiring next Friday offers leverage if the move lags but builds momentum.

For stock traders, here’s a concrete plan:

• Entry: Buy XOM near $115.93 (intraday low) if it holds as support.
• Target: Aim for $120.37 (Bollinger Upper Band) as the first profit zone.
• Stop: Exit if price drops below $112.31 (lower Bollinger Band), which would invalidate the bullish case.

Bullish Trends Ahead: Balancing Optimism and Caution

XOM isn’t just riding a technical wave—it’s backed by long-term fundamentals. The 200-day moving average at $110.51 is a distant floor, and with RSI at 58.37, the stock isn’t overbought yet. But remember: bull markets in energy stocks are like wildfires—they move fast, but they can die out if conditions shift. Keep an eye on crude oil prices and earnings reports in late July. If OPEC+ sticks to production cuts, XOM could surprise to the upside.

In the end, this is a high-conviction trade for bulls, but one that demands tight risk management. The options market has already priced in a $120+ move—now it’s up to the stock to deliver. And if it does? Those $120 calls could turn into a fireworks show.