XOM Options Signal Bullish Bet: Calls at $119 Dominate as Puts at $107 Hedge Volatility

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) surges 1.25% to $116.14, breaking above 30D/100D moving averages
• Options data shows 6889 open interest at $119 call (next Friday expiry), vs 4566 open interest at $107 put
• RSI at 62.4 and MACD above signal line suggest short-term bullish momentum

Here’s the thing: XOM’s options market is screaming about a high-stakes game of chess. Traders are piling into calls above $119 while hedging with puts below $107—like a crowd betting on a breakout but keeping a life raft handy. The stock’s 1.25% rally today isn’t just noise; it’s a signal that the bulls are flexing their muscles, and the bears are watching closely.

The Call-Put Imbalance: A Bullish Play with a Safety Net

Let’s start with the options data. The top call strike with 6889 open interest at $119 (next Friday expiry) is a red flag for a potential breakout. That’s not just random buying—it’s a vote of confidence that XOM could punch through its intraday high of $116.85 and keep climbing. Meanwhile, the $107 put with 4566 open interest acts like an insurance policy for a 10% drop from current levels.

Think of it like this: You’re at a poker table where everyone’s betting big on the next card being a heart. The call buyers are all-in on hearts, while the put buyers are quietly holding spades just in case. The put/call ratio of 0.63 (calls dominate) confirms this bullish tilt, but don’t ignore the puts—they’re there for a reason. If XOM stumbles below its 200D support at $108.34, those puts could trigger a cascade of selling.

News Flow: Oil Sector Optimism Fuels the Fire

The news isn’t just background noise. Five of the top headlines mention XOM’s 1.28% gains tied to oil sector rallies and geopolitical moves. The Trump sanctions chatter, LNG expansion talks, and BlackRock’s carbon partnership all point to a sector-wide reset. But here’s the catch: While the headlines paint a sunny picture, the options market is hedging against a rainy day.

Investor perception is key here. If the oil rally turns out to be a “head-fake” (as one headline warns), the $107 puts could become a magnet for panic selling. But if the sector’s long-term resilience holds—like the Motley Fool’s bullish take—the $119 calls might ride a wave of momentum. The trick is timing: Will the bulls push XOM above $119 before the next Friday expiry, or will the bears drag it back down to test the $108.34 support?

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options traders, the $119 call (next Friday expiry) is the standout. If XOM breaks above its intraday high of $116.85 and holds, this strike could see explosive gains. The RSI at 62.4 and Bollinger Bands suggest the stock is primed for a move above $116.37 (upper band).

Consider buying the $119 call (next Friday expiry) if:

• XOM closes above $116.85 today
• Volume spikes above 10 million shares
• MACD crosses above the signal line

For the cautious, the $108 put (next Friday expiry) offers a hedge. If XOM dips below $112.22 (30D support), this strike could cap losses. But don’t get greedy—this is a defensive play, not a speculative one.

Stock traders have their own playbook. A breakout above $116.85 could target $119.34 (30D/100D convergence), while a pullback to $115.36 (intraday low) offers a low-risk entry. Set a stop-loss below $112.22 to protect against a breakdown.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Risk

The bottom line? XOM is in a sweet spot where technicals, options flow, and news all align for a bullish bias. But don’t ignore the puts—they’re a reminder that oil markets are fickle. The $119 call is a high-reward bet, but it’s only worth the risk if you’re comfortable with a 10% drop.

Here’s what to watch:

• Tomorrow’s close: A green candle above $116.85 would validate the bullish case
• Volume surge: If trading hits 10 million shares, it’s a green light for calls
• News catalysts: The BlackRock partnership and Guyana exports could add fuel to the fire

In the end, XOM’s options market is a story of optimism with a side of caution. The bulls are betting big on $119, but the bears aren’t sleeping. Your move? Ride the wave—or play it safe with a put. Either way, the next few days will tell if this is a breakout or a blip.