XOM Options Signal $120 Call Focus: Bullish Setup Amid Mixed Technicals for Dec 19th Traders

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) trades at $116.88, clinging to a 0.29% intraday gain amid a short-term bearish trend but long-term bullish setup.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at the $120 strike (40,231 contracts) for Friday expiration, while puts dominate below $100—hinting at a battle for $117.56 resistance.
• Recent news highlights XOM’s $20B share buyback plan and strong balance sheet, but Zacks analysts remain cautious with a ‘Hold’ rating.

Here’s the takeaway: XOM’s options market is pricing in a bullish bias for a breakout above $117.56, but technicals warn of near-term fragility. Let’s break down why this is a high-probability setup—and where to watch for cracks.

Bullish Call Dominance at $120, But Puts Signal Floor Watching

The options chain tells a clear story: traders are betting on a push toward $120. The XOM20251219C120 call has 40,231 open contracts—nearly double the next strike. This suggests institutional money is positioning for a short-term pop, likely targeting a break above the intraday high of $117.56. Yet the put/call ratio for open interest (0.669) isn’t screaming bullish; heavy put activity below $100 (11,391 contracts) shows some hedging against a drop below the 200D MA at $108.27.

But here’s the catch: the RSI at 51.7 and MACD histogram (-0.17) hint at waning momentum. If XOM fails to hold above $116.77 (intraday low), those puts could get activated. No block trades to note—so no whale moves to skew the data.

News Flow: Buybacks and Balance Sheet Strength Fuel Optimism

XOM’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The $20B share repurchase plan and 3.5% dividend yield are classic value plays, especially with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of just 13.6%. Institutional buying (like Montecito Bank’s $3M stake) reinforces confidence. Yet Zacks analysts have left the 2025 earnings estimate untouched—no upward revisions in a week. That’s a red flag: when insiders hesitate to raise targets, it often precedes earnings misses or softer demand.

The key tension here is whether the market trusts XOM’s balance sheet over macroeconomic headwinds. Oil prices are volatile, and while XOM’s Permian and Guyana assets are strategic, a prolonged downturn could pressure margins. For now, though, the stock’s 15.4% YTD gain suggests investors are betting on resilience.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Friday, Cautious Longs for Next Week

For options traders: buy the XOM20251219C120 call (40,231 OI) if XOM closes above $117.56 today. A break here could trigger a rally toward the Bollinger Upper Band at $119.83. For next Friday, the XOM20251226C118 call (2,599 OI) offers a cheaper entry if the stock consolidates near $116.80.

Stock players: consider entry near $116.80 if support holds above the 30D MA ($114.5). Target $119.83 (Bollinger Upper) if the RSI crosses 55. Stop-loss below $114.5—failure here would validate the short-term bearish trend.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Setup and Caution

XOM is in a tightrope act. The options market is pricing in a $120 move, but technicals warn of a potential pullback if the 116.80 level breaks. The coming days will test whether the $20B buyback and institutional confidence can outweigh macro risks. For now, the data says: play the breakout, but keep a tight stop. If XOM holds, the long-term bulls will have their day. If not, the puts below $100 could become a lifeline.