XOM Options Signal $120 Bullish Bias: Here's How to Position for Earnings-Driven Momentum

• XOM surges 1.2% to $119.11, breaking above 30D/100D/200D averages
• Call open interest dominates at $120-$125 strikes, with 38,741 contracts at $120
• Q3 earnings report shows $7.5B profit and $6.3B free cash flow, but Fife plant closures create near-term uncertainty

Let’s cut to the chase: XOM’s options market is whispering a clear message. With call open interest spiking at the $120 strike and technical indicators pointing higher, this stock is primed for a breakout—or a sharp correction if sentiment shifts. Here’s how to navigate the crossroads.

The Call-Put Imbalance: A Bullish Playbook with Caveats

Take a look at the options chain: 38,741 calls at the $120 strike (Friday expiry) dwarf the 8,961 puts at $115. That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence. Traders are betting Exxon will test its 52-week high of $120.16, especially with Q3 earnings showing $7.5B in profits and $6.3B in free cash flow. But don’t ignore the puts. The $115 strike has 8,961 open contracts, hinting some are hedging against a pullback to the 30D support zone ($110.64–$110.82).

The put/call ratio of 0.67 (calls > puts) reinforces the bullish tilt. Yet, the lack of block trades means no whale-sized bets are skewing the data. That’s both a blessing and a warning: retail and institutional players are aligned for a rally, but there’s no heavy-handed floor to catch a sudden drop.

News Flow: Earnings Fuel Optimism, Brazil Adds Gas, Fife Adds Risk

Exxon’s Q3 results are a goldmine for bulls. $1.76/share earnings and $9.4B in shareholder distributions scream "value creation." The Bacalhau project in Brazil—unlocking 1B barrels of oil equivalent—adds long-term tailwinds. But the Fife plant closures? That’s a short-term headwind. While the UK government is pushing for alternatives, the immediate impact on XOM’s stock is a question mark. Investors are likely factoring this into their options strategies: buying calls for the Brazil-driven upside while using puts to hedge against Fife-related volatility.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Breakout, Puts for the Safety Net

For options traders, the $120 call (Friday expiry) is a no-brainer. With 38,741 contracts open, it’s the most liquid and directional bet. If Exxon closes above $120.15 (Bollinger Upper Band), this strike could see explosive gains. For a longer play, the $124 call (next Friday expiry) offers leverage if the stock holds above its 200D MA ($110.45).

Stock traders should consider entry near $116.02 (Bollinger Middle Band) if support holds. A breakout above $119.11 (intraday high) would target $120.15. But if the stock dips below $111.89 (Bollinger Lower Band), the 200D MA at $110.45 becomes critical. A stop-loss below $110.45 would protect against the Fife-related risks.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Caution

Here’s the rub: XOM’s RSI at 58.55 suggests it’s not yet overbought, but the MACD histogram (0.295) is climbing. That means momentum is building—just not yet explosive. The key is timing. If the stock closes above $120.15 this week, the 200D MA could flip from support to a psychological hurdle. Conversely, a failure to hold $116.02 could trigger a retest of the $111.89 level.

The bottom line? This is a stock at a crossroads. The options market is bullish, the fundamentals are strong, but near-term risks linger. Position yourself with calls for the breakout, but keep a safety net with puts at $115. And if you’re trading the stock, let the Bollinger Bands and moving averages guide your entries. In crypto terms, it’s like holding Bitcoin at $30K—upside potential is massive, but you don’t go all-in without a stop-loss. XOM is similar: the prize is big, but the path isn’t without potholes.