XOM Options Signal $120 Bullish Bias: How to Play the Earnings Catalyst and Strategic Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) trades at $114.78, down 2.5% from its 52-week high but still above key moving averages.
• Options market shows 68% more open interest in calls than puts, with heavy call volume at the $120 strike.
• Analysts from UBS and Morgan Stanley raised price targets to $145 and $137, citing energy sector strength and XOM’s 2030 growth plan.

Here’s the core insight: XOM’s options activity and technicals are painting a clear picture. The stock is consolidating near its 200-day support but shows strong short-term bullish momentum. With calls dominating the options chain and analysts bullish on earnings growth, the stage is set for a potential breakout—if the price can hold above $115.88.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in the Options Chain

The options market isn’t whispering—it’s shouting. For this Friday’s expiration (Dec 19), the $120 call strike has 43,547 open contracts, nearly triple the next highest ($125 at 20,348). That’s not just noise; it’s a bet that XOM will rally into the $120s before the weekend. Meanwhile, puts are clustered at $100 and $110, but their combined open interest (11,387 + 10,640 = 22,027) pales compared to the $120 call’s 43,547.

This imbalance tells us two things: 1) traders are pricing in a sharp rebound, and 2) downside protection is minimal. The put/call ratio of 0.68 (favoring calls) reinforces this. But don’t ignore the risk—those $100 puts could signal a dark cloud if oil prices tank or macro fears resurface.

News Flow: Strategic Moves and Analyst Hype

XOM’s recent headlines are a goldmine for bulls. The company raised its 2030 earnings target to $25 billion, announced a $1.03 dividend hike (3.5% yield), and secured a major refinery upgrade in Saudi Arabia. UBS and Morgan Stanley aren’t just optimistic—they’re aggressive, with $145 and $137 price targets.

But here’s the catch: The stock’s intraday drop (-2.5%) suggests profit-taking after its recent rally. Investors are reshuffling positions, and while institutional buying (like American National Bank’s $1.12M stake) is encouraging, the Singapore cracker shutdown hints at petrochemical sector headwinds. For now, the news flow aligns with the options market’s bullish bias—but keep an eye on oil prices and global demand trends.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for the Quick Flip, Stock for the Long Game

If you’re trading options, the XOM20251219C120 call is your best bet. With XOM currently at $114.78, a close above $117.50 (the 30D support level) could trigger a rush to the $120 strike. For a longer play, the XOM20251226C121 call offers more time (through Dec 26) if the stock consolidates. Both options are speculative—price needs to break above $117.50 to justify the risk.

For stock traders, consider entry near $115.88 (the 30D support range). Set a stop-loss below $114.20 (the lower Bollinger Band) and aim for a target at $117.50. If XOM holds here, the next resistance at $117.50 could act as a springboard to test the $120 level.

Volatility on the Horizon

XOM’s options and fundamentals are pointing in the same direction: up. The $120 call strike is a psychological and strategic target, backed by analyst upgrades and a robust 2030 plan. But don’t ignore the risks—those $100 puts are a reminder that energy stocks can be volatile. If you’re bullish, play it smart: use the $115.88 support as your floor and let the $120 call options amplify your gains. The next few days could be the catalyst we’ve all been waiting for.