XOM Options Signal $120 Bull Call Play Amid Mixed Technicals – Here’s How to Position for Volatility

• XOM trades at $116.32, down 0.93% with volume surging to 5.67M shares.
• Options market favors calls: Put/Call OI ratio at 0.67, with heavy call OI at $120 and $125 strikes.
• Technicals show short-term bearish pressure but long-term bullish bias from 200D MA ($111.23).
• Recent news highlights XOM’s strong balance sheet and analyst upgrades, but VP’s $351K share sale raises questions.

The big takeaway? Options data and technicals paint a tug-of-war: short-term sellers test support near $115.90, while bullish positioning at $120+ hints at a potential rebound. Let’s break it down.Bull Call Bets vs. Downside Protection: What the OI Reveals

Options market participants are clearly leaning bullish for a reason. This Friday’s $120 call (XOM20251219C120) has 40,616 open contracts—the most of any strike. That’s not just noise; it’s a price level where big money is hedging or speculating on a rebound. The $125 and $130 calls add to this cluster, suggesting a target zone above $120.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $100 and $110 puts (XOM20251219P100, XOM20251219P110) have 11,391 and 10,597 open contracts respectively. That’s a net of ~$22M in downside protection, which could mean institutional players are hedging against a deeper selloff. The key question: Will XOM hold above $113.93 (lower Bollinger Band) or collapse further?

Block trading? None to report. So no massive institutional moves to explain this setup—it’s all retail and institutional options positioning.

News Flow: Strong Balance Sheet vs. Shareholder Uncertainty

Exxon’s debt-to-capitalization of 13.6% is a shield in low-oil-price environments, and its Guyana and Permian assets are cost-advantaged. Analysts love the $129.45 average price target, and the dividend hike to $1.03 (3.5% yield) adds appeal. But VP Darrin Talley’s recent $351K sale of 3,000 shares—reducing his stake by 8.67%—raises eyebrows. Insiders don’t always time markets, but it’s a data point to note.

The options market isn’t ignoring this. The $140.8 average price target mentioned in options analysis aligns with the $120–$125 call-heavy positioning. If oil prices stabilize and XOM’s upstream operations hold up, this could be the spark for a rally.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Aggressive Bets, Stock for Cautious Grinders

For options traders: The XOM20251219C120 ($120 call expiring Friday) is the most liquid and strategically placed. If XOM closes above $116.90 (middle Bollinger Band) tomorrow, this strike could see explosive gains. Alternatively, the XOM20251226C117 ($117 call expiring next Friday) offers a cheaper, longer-dated play if the rally is gradual.

For stock traders: Consider entry near $115.90 (30D support level) with a tight stop below $113.93. If XOM holds here, target $119.88 (upper Bollinger Band) as a near-term ceiling. A break above $119.88 could trigger the $120 call buyers to push toward $125.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Risk and Reward

XOM’s RSI at 57.14 and MACD crossover suggest it’s in neutral territory, but the 30D MA at $117.15 and 200D MA at $111.23 create a wide trading range. The real test will be Friday’s close: a break above $116.95 (intraday high) could validate the bullish call positioning. Conversely, a close below $115.63 (intraday low) would force a reevaluation of the $113.93 support.

Bottom line: This is a stock with long-term conviction (200D MA bias) but short-term jitters. If you’re bullish on Exxon’s resilience, the $120 call or a stock entry near $115.90 offers clear setups. But keep a close eye on oil prices and that VP’s next move—sometimes, the smallest trades tell the biggest stories.