XOM Options Signal $120 Bull Call Play as Analysts Target $135—Here’s How to Position for 2025’s Big Move

• XOM trades at $119.28, up 0.87% with volume surging past 6.9M shares
• Call open interest dominates at $120–$121 strikes (4,254–4,180 contracts) ahead of Friday’s expiry
• Analysts from Morgan Stanley to UBS have raised price targets to $135–$145, citing $25B+ earnings growth

The options market and technicals are painting a clear picture: XOM is primed for a breakout above $120. With bullish momentum across timeframes and analyst upgrades piling in, now’s the moment to lock in positions before Friday’s expiry amplifies volatility.Bull Call Play: $120 Strikes Dominate as Institutional Bets Stack Up

Options data tells a story of conviction. This Friday’s chain shows 4,254 open interest at the $120 call and 4,180 at $121, while next Friday’s $120 call balloons to 42,891 contracts—a staggering 10x increase. These aren’t retail bets; they’re institutional signals that smart money expects a push above $120. The put side isn’t ignored, though: $115 and $110 puts (2,447 and 1,273 OI) hint at cautious hedging, but the call/put ratio of 0.68 (calls > puts) confirms the bullish tilt.

Why This Matters: If XOM breaks above its intraday high of $119.64, the $120 calls become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Traders betting on this level will trigger gamma squeezes, accelerating the move. But watch the $115.90 support (30D level)—a breakdown here would validate the put-heavy downside risk.Analyst Upgrades and $25B Earnings Fuel the Narrative

Exxon’s updated 2030 plan—$25B earnings and $35B cash flow growth without extra spending—is the kind of disciplined growth that turns skeptics into believers. Morgan Stanley’s $137 target and UBS’s $145 mark aren’t just numbers; they’re math based on Permian Basin output and cost cuts. The DCF model’s $247 intrinsic value? That’s long-term, but it underscores today’s 52% discount as a buying opportunity.

The Catch: Oil markets are fickle. A sudden OPEC+ production hike or U.S. inventory surge could derail this. But with analysts projecting $145B in surplus cash flow through 2030, short-term volatility might be a buying chance, not a red flag.Actionable Trades: Calls, Stocks, and Strategic Spreads

1. Options Play: Buy XOM20251212C120 (this Friday’s $120 call) if XOM breaks $119.64. Target $122–$124 before expiry. For a longer play, XOM20251219C120 offers leverage if the $120 level holds.
2. Stock Entry: Consider buying near $118.38 (intraday low) if support holds. First target: $120.10 (Bollinger upper band). Second: $122 (call-heavy zone).
3. Bull Spread: Buy XOM20251219C120 and sell XOM20251219C125 to cap risk while capitalizing on the $120–$125 call frenzy.

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for 2025’s Energy Play

Exxon’s story isn’t just about oil—it’s about efficiency, low-carbon bets, and a dividend yield of 3.48% that outpaces tech darlings. The options market and analysts agree: this is a stock built for the long game. But Friday’s expiry could be a catalyst. If XOM holds above $119.64, the $120 calls become a battleground. Enter now, or wait for a pullback to $117.15 (200D MA)? The data leans bullish, but always size positions to tolerate a $115.90 breakdown.

Bottom line: XOM’s options, technicals, and fundamentals are in sync. The question isn’t if it’ll move—it’s when you’ll act.