XLM's Selling Flow: Derivatives, Volume, and the Path to $0.15

XLM's price action confirms a sharp breakdown, trading at $0.159 and down 8% in 24 hours. This follows a 18.86% drop over the past week, with the coin now below its October 10, 2025 low of $0.160. The immediate capital outflow is being driven by bearish positioning in derivatives markets.

Derivatives data shows a clear shift to the downside. The long-to-short ratio stands at 0.85, indicating more traders are betting on a price decline. At the same time, futures Open Interest fell to $97 million, the lowest level since November 2024. This combination of rising short bets and falling participation signals a drying up of bullish conviction.

Technical indicators reinforce the bearish flow. Price is trading below all major moving averages, including the 30-day and 200-day SMAs. The 14-day RSI reading of 27.55 confirms the asset is deeply oversold, a condition that often precedes a bounce but currently reflects intense, sustained selling pressure.

The On-Chain Contradiction: Accumulation Amidst the Sell-Off

The price is collapsing, but the network is alive. Despite trading below $0.20, XLM's DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) hit a new all-time high, surpassing 900 million XLM. This capital is flowing into protocols like Blend and Aquarius, showing that real utility and long-term belief are growing even as short-term traders exit.

User adoption signals are strengthening. The network is seeing 25% active address growth, a sign of genuine participation beyond speculation. At the same time, whale positions are thinning, with a 5% reduction in whale holdings, which can lead to a more stable and mature market structure.

This activity is supported by the network's economics. Stellar's ultra-low fee structure, with base fees below $0.01, eliminates cost barriers for users and developers. This efficiency is the bedrock allowing DeFi protocols and stablecoin activity to scale, creating a powerful counter-narrative to the bearish price action.

Catalysts and Key Levels: Flow Reversal Signals

The immediate battleground is at $0.15. A break below this critical support level would likely extend the decline toward the $0.13-$0.14 range, removing a key floor for the current oversold bounce. This level is the first line of defense; its loss would signal that selling pressure is intensifying and the recent price action is shifting from a correction to a deeper downtrend.

For a reversal to gain traction, XLM must reclaim the $0.17-$0.18 resistance zone. This area is the bull case's primary target, representing a key technical level where the price previously found support. A sustained recovery here would require volume expansion to validate the move, as a bounce on thinning volume would lack conviction.

The derivatives market holds the clearest signal for a sentiment shift. Watch for a rise in futures Open Interest alongside a reversal in the long-to-short ratio above 1.0. This combination would indicate fresh capital flowing into the market and a change in trader positioning, providing the flow momentum needed to challenge the bearish structure.