XLM's Repeating Falling Wedge and Path to $0.48: Is a 100% Rally Imminent?

Stellar (XLM) has emerged as a compelling case study in the interplay between technical patterns and on-chain fundamentals. As the cryptocurrency tests critical resistance levels and institutional adoption accelerates, the question of whether XLM can replicate its historical 138% rallies becomes increasingly relevant. This analysis examines the convergence of bullish technical signals, rising network activity, and institutional tailwinds to assess the likelihood of a 100% price surge to $0.48.

Technical Analysis: A Confluence of Bullish Signals

XLM's price action on the 4-hour and daily charts paints a picture of strengthening buyer momentum. The token has recently broken out of a falling wedge pattern-a classic bullish reversal formation-on the daily chart, with price testing a key resistance zone near $0.29. This level is not only a structural barrier but also aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, adding psychological weight to its significance.

Supporting this breakout, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 59.72, nearing overbought territory and signaling waning bearish pressure. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) further reinforces this narrative, with expanding green histogram bars indicating accelerating positive momentum. Meanwhile, the 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing above the 26-day EMA-a bullish "golden crossover"-confirms a potential trend reversal.

On the 30-minute chart, while the RSI briefly dipped into oversold territory at 25.37, this short-term dip appears to be a retracement rather than a breakdown, given the broader context of rising EMAs and a positive MACD histogram according to technical analysis. Analysts caution that a failure to hold above $0.22 could invalidate the bullish case, but the current setup suggests buyers are gaining control according to market commentary.

On-Chain Fundamentals: Network Activity and Institutional Adoption

Beyond price action, Stellar's on-chain metrics underscore a network in growth mode. Daily ledger activity has surged to 7.9 million operations, including 3.85 million payments and over 747,000 decentralized exchange (DEX) trades. This volume reflects both retail utility and institutional interest, particularly in cross-border payments and stablecoin issuance.

A pivotal development in Q3-Q4 2025 was the initiation of stablecoin issuance tests by U.S. Bank, one of the largest commercial banks in the U.S. This move, coupled with AUDD-a 1:1 Australian dollar-backed stablecoin on Stellar-surpassing $1 billion in transaction volume, highlights the network's growing role in institutional finance. Additionally, Stellar's recent launch of X-Ray (Protocol 25), which introduces zero-knowledge (ZK) privacy infrastructure, aligns with institutional demand for privacy-focused blockchain solutions.

Active address metrics also tell a story of expanding adoption. The rolling 30-day active address count has shown consistent growth, reflecting increased user participation in payments, DEX trading, and smart contract interactions. These metrics suggest that XLM's utility is not merely speculative but rooted in real-world applications.

Historical Precedent: Falling Wedge Breakouts and 138% Rallies

Historical data provides further validation for the bullish case. In 2025, XLM has exhibited two prior falling wedge breakouts from the $0.24 support level, each followed by sharp rallies of up to 138%. The current wedge pattern mirrors these setups, with a projected target of $0.48 and an extended range of $0.58–$0.62 according to technical analysis.

Analysts note that the structural similarity between past and present patterns, combined with the absence of bearish divergences in key indicators, strengthens the case for a repeat performance. The $0.29 resistance level, if cleanly breached, could trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy as algorithmic trading strategies and institutional buyers step in to capitalize on the breakout.

Investment Thesis: A Convergence of Technical and Fundamental Drivers

The case for XLM hinges on the alignment of technical and fundamental factors. On the technical side, the falling wedge breakout, RSI/EMA/AO alignment, and Fibonacci confluence create a high-probability setup for a $0.48 target. On the fundamental side, rising network activity, institutional adoption, and privacy upgrades position Stellar as a bridge between traditional finance and decentralized infrastructure.

While short-term volatility remains a risk-particularly if the RSI fails to sustain above 50 on the 30-minute chart-the broader trend suggests a shift in momentum. For investors with a short-to-medium-term horizon, the combination of a well-defined technical pattern and robust on-chain fundamentals offers a compelling risk-reward profile.

Conclusion

Stellar (XLM) stands at a critical juncture. The falling wedge breakout, supported by bullish indicators and institutional tailwinds, presents a unique opportunity for a 100% price surge to $0.48. As the network's utility in cross-border payments and stablecoin ecosystems gains traction, XLM's technical and fundamental narratives converge to form a persuasive case for accumulation. Investors who act decisively on this setup may find themselves positioned to capitalize on one of the most structurally sound bullish plays in the current market cycle.