XLM Down 0.47% to $0.3167 as Pressure Mounts on Key Resistance Levels

Stellar Lumens (XLM) closed on October 29, 2025, at $0.3167, marking a 0.47% drop in the last 24 hours. Over the past week, the coin fell 0.81%, and in a one-month period, the decline deepened to 12.94%. Year-to-date, XLM has lost 4.75% of its value, reflecting ongoing bearish pressure in a broader crypto market environment.

Earlier in the week, XLM had seen a brief rally, rising to $0.3314 from $0.3240 over the 24-hour period ending October 28. This 2.3% gain marked a breakout above the $0.3250 resistance level, driven by strong trading volume of 71.5 million at the time. The European session saw a peak in activity at 190.5 million, indicating potential institutional participation. Despite the short-term volatility, XLM’s bullish structure held, with higher lows forming from $0.3219 to $0.3314. However, the price briefly pulled back to $0.331 amid selling volume of 11.8 million, before stabilizing near the $0.3315 support level, suggesting ongoing accumulation.

From a broader perspective, institutional interest in Stellar’s role in next-generation payment systems continued to grow. At the SWIFT SIBOS conference, experts emphasized the network’s potential to integrate blockchain-based real-time settlement with traditional finance, reinforcing the long-term appeal of XLM. Nevertheless, the recent price action points to a more challenging near-term outlook.

Technical Analysis

The key support level for XLM appears to be $0.3315, which held during the recent pullback. On the upside, the $0.335 resistance zone is a critical focal point. A retest of this level could provide clarity on whether buyers are willing to push the price higher. Volume analysis from the October 28 breakout—particularly the 190.5 million traded during the European session—suggests that institutional actors were active in the move upward, which could signal a more structured accumulation phase.

Chart structure remains intact despite the recent pullback, with a clear ascending pattern of higher lows. However, a breakdown below $0.3240—defined as the breakout level—would indicate a loss of bullish momentum and open the door for further declines toward $0.3219 or lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest conducted from January 1, 2022, to October 29, 2025, examined XLM’s performance following instances when the coin closed at or above $0.335. The analysis identified 170 such events. The results showed that the average cumulative return after the signal was –0.49% on Day 1, steadily declining to –9.7% by Day 30. By Day 3, the under-performance relative to a crypto benchmark became statistically significant at the 95% level, with a win rate of positive returns never exceeding 45% and dropping to approximately 22% by the 30-day mark.

This suggests that the $0.335 level has historically acted as a ceiling, triggering short-term pullbacks after being reached. Traders and investors should remain cautious when XLM approaches this level, as it may indicate increased selling pressure or profit-taking. The backtest aligns with the current technical picture, where XLM’s near-term trajectory remains under pressure.