Xeris Biopharma Soared 19.3%, Can This Momentum Sustain the Bullish Surge?

Summary
• Xeris Biopharma (XERS) surged 19.3% intraday, trading at $6.55 after opening at $6.80
• Q2 revenue jumped 48.8% to $71.5M, surpassing estimates by 8.6%
• Recorlev revenue soared 136% YoY to $31.4M, driving the earnings beat

Biopharma stocks are in a frenzy as Xeris Biopharma’s Q2 results ignite a 19.3% intraday rally. The stock’s sharp rebound from a $6.1 low to a $7.085 high reflects a mix of earnings surprises and strategic guidance upgrades. With Recorlev’s 136% revenue growth and a $280–$290M full-year revenue target, investors are recalibrating their risk appetite for this mid-cap biotech. The 52-week high of $7.085 now acts as a critical psychological barrier.

Earnings Beat and Guidance Hike Ignite XERS Rally
Xeris Biopharma’s 19.3% intraday surge stems from a Q2 revenue beat of $71.5M (48.8% YoY) and a narrowed net loss of $1.9M, far outperforming the $65.9M consensus. Recorlev’s 136% YoY revenue growth to $31.4M and Gvoke’s 17% increase to $23.5M underscored the company’s commercial execution. The raised full-year revenue guidance to $280–$290M (from $260–$275M) and long-term $750M 2030 target further stoked optimism. Analysts highlight that the 64% EPS surprise and 12.2% pre-market jump reflect a re-rating of XERS’ growth trajectory.

Options Playbook: Leveraging XERS’ Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.145 (bullish divergence), RSI: 60.66 (neutral), 200D MA: $4.15 (price above 50%)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $6.55 (above middle band of $5.22), K-line: Short-term bullish trend
• Key Levels: 52W high at $7.085 (critical resistance), 30D support at $5.11
Top Options Contracts:
• XERS20250919C7.5 (Call, $7.5 strike, 2025-09-19): IV 50.49% (moderate), Delta 0.264 (moderate sensitivity), Gamma 0.2836 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover $9,369 (liquid). This contract offers 38.71% leverage, ideal for capitalizing on a potential $7.5 breakout.
• XERS20251017C7.5 (Call, $7.5 strike, 2025-10-17): IV 56.30% (elevated), Delta 0.3575 (moderate), Gamma 0.2268 (high), Turnover $13,757 (high liquidity). With 18.80% leverage and a 337.50% price change ratio, this option balances time decay (-0.005438 theta) and gamma for a mid-term play.
Payoff Analysis: At a 5% upside (target $6.88), XERS20250919C7.5 yields max profit of $0.38 per share, while XERS20251017C7.5 offers $0.38. Aggressive bulls should prioritize the September 19 contract for its high gamma and leverage, while the October 17 option suits a more conservative, time-extended approach. Action: Buy XERS20250919C7.5 if $6.80 retests as support; scale into XERS20251017C7.5 on a $6.70 close above the 30D MA.

Backtest Xeris Biopharma Stock Performance
The backtest of XERS ETF after a 19% intraday surge shows favorable performance metrics, highlighting the strategy's potential for capturing short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 51.28%, the 10-Day win rate is 53.85%, and the 30-Day win rate is 58.06%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.87%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while there is volatility, significant gains are possible with a measured approach.

XERS at Inflection Point: Target $7.085 or Reversal to $5.11?
Xeris Biopharma’s 19.3% rally hinges on its ability to sustain momentum above $6.80 and challenge the $7.085 52-week high. The 60.66 RSI and bullish MACD suggest a short-term continuation, but a break below the 30D support at $5.11 could trigger a retest of the 200D MA at $4.15. Investors should monitor the September 19 options expiration for liquidity shifts and the September healthcare conferences for sentiment. Meanwhile, sector leader Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) remains flat at +0.13%—a stark contrast to XERS’ volatility. Takeaway: Buy XERS20250919C7.5 on a $6.80 close above the 30D MA; exit if $6.70 fails to hold.