WTI crude falls 1%, currently at USD 59.52 per barrel.

WTI crude falls 1%, currently at USD 59.52 per barrel.

In a significant shift, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price fell by 1% on April 30, 2025, reaching $59.52 per barrel. This decline comes amidst a backdrop of global market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

The downturn in WTI prices is largely attributed to a combination of factors. Firstly, the implementation of a "reciprocal tariff" policy by the U.S. President Trump has led to a significant plunge in oil prices [1]. Additionally, the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, expanded its production increase to 411,000 barrels per day, far exceeding the original plan of 138,000 barrels per day. This move has caused a complete collapse in market confidence, further driving down prices [1].

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also revised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025, lowering it from 1.5% to 0.3% [1]. This reduction in demand, coupled with an increase in supply, has put downward pressure on oil prices. Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict that WTI crude oil prices will further decline to $55 per barrel by 2026 [1].

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has also revised its oil price forecast, lowering the average price of Brent crude oil from $74 per barrel in March to $68 per barrel in April [1]. The EIA predicts that as OPEC+ accelerates its planned production increase, global oil inventories will continue to grow in 2025, potentially leading to further price declines.

Furthermore, the recent sanctions on Russian oil transportation have affected the price of ESPO Blend crude, which has been trading below the $60 per barrel Western price cap level since early April [2]. The cost of transporting ESPO Blend to China has jumped significantly due to these sanctions, but traders remain hopeful that prices may return to pre-sanction levels if additional restrictions are lifted [2].

In the broader context, the global economic slowdown and trade wars are also contributing to the decline in commodity prices. The World Bank expects commodity prices to fall sharply this year and next as rising tariffs lead to a slowdown in the global economy [3].

In conclusion, the current market conditions are characterized by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty. The WTI crude oil price decline to $59.52 per barrel reflects these broader market forces and highlights the volatility in the global energy market.

References:
[1] https://nai500.com/blog/2025/04/oil-and-natural-gas-price-forecast-for-2025%EF%BC%88updated-in-april%EF%BC%89/
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3R72BO:0-russian-espo-blend-oil-freight-rates-hit-lowest-since-january-traders-say/
[3] https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2025042912165/news-highlights-top-global-markets-news-of-the-day-tuesday-at-3-pm-et