Wrapped Bitcoin/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price edged higher over 24 hours, closing near 1.0002 after testing key levels.
• Volume surged during overnight hours, coinciding with a breakout attempt.
• RSI and MACD suggest neutral momentum, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion as volatility increased post-overnight.
• Turnover diverged from price in early ET hours, signaling cautious market sentiment.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13, Wrapped Bitcoin/Bitcoin (WBTCBTC) opened at 0.9994, reaching a high of 1.001 and a low of 0.9991 before closing at 1.0002. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 314.08 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately 314.08 BTC (assuming 1:1 peg to Bitcoin).

The structure of the 15-minute candlesticks showed a consolidation phase during the initial hours of the period, followed by a breakout attempt in the overnight hours. A key support level was tested at 0.9995, which held during the early hours of ET, while a resistance cluster between 1.0001 and 1.0003 appeared to stall upward momentum. A notable candlestick formation occurred at 03:45 ET on 2025-10-13, where a bullish hammer appeared at 0.9995 with a close at 1.0002 — a potential reversal pattern.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover of the 20-period and 50-period lines during the overnight hours, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA remained above the 100 and 200-period lines, indicating a longer-term neutral-to-bullish bias.

The MACD histogram showed a slight increase in momentum during the overnight hours, confirming the short-term bullish move, while the RSI oscillated between 45 and 55, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands widened during the late ET to early overnight hours, coinciding with the increased volatility and the bullish hammer formation. Price closed near the upper band at 1.0002, suggesting a continuation of the uptrend could be possible.

The 24-hour volume profile showed a sharp increase in volume during the overnight hours, particularly from 03:45 ET to 05:00 ET, coinciding with the breakout attempt and bullish hammer formation. Notional turnover also spiked during this time, reaching a peak of $90.30k in one 15-minute interval. The volume and turnover divergence in the early ET hours — where turnover dropped despite continued price movement — may suggest a lack of conviction or a potential distribution phase. However, the confirmation of the move through higher volume later in the night provided a degree of bullish validation.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 15-minute swing from 0.9991 to 1.0002 indicated key levels at 0.9995 (38.2%), 0.9997 (50%), and 0.9999 (61.8%). The 50% level aligned with the 15-minute close at 1.0002, suggesting a potential area of interest for further consolidation or a breakout. On the daily chart, Fibonacci retracements from the recent bearish swing also indicated 1.0003 as a key psychological level that appears to be holding.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves identifying the occurrence of a Bullish Engulfing pattern in the daily bars of the WBTCBTC pair and holding the position for 48 hours. Given the 1:1 peg, the pattern may be less meaningful in this specific pair, as the price rarely strays more than a few basis points from par. However, using a different pair like WBTC-USDT or WBTC-USD could provide more actionable signals. The daily Bullish Engulfing pattern is typically a strong reversal signal, and its effectiveness in this context would depend on whether the market is in a consolidation or bearish phase. If confirmed on a higher-volume and more liquid pair, the strategy could offer valuable insights into potential breakout opportunities. The proposed backtest period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13 would allow for a robust evaluation of the pattern’s predictive power.