Worldcoin/Tether Market Overview

• Worldcoin/Tether (WLDUSDT) fell from a 24-hour high of $1.333 to close near $1.215, a 9% drop over 24 hours.
• A sharp selloff emerged after 10:00 ET, with price declining below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart.
• Volume surged during the decline, peaking at 3.4M in the 15-minute candle on October 7 at 14:00 ET.
• RSI hit 27 by 15:15 ET, suggesting oversold conditions, while MACD turned bearish with a bearish crossover.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the sell-off, confirming increased volatility amid a down trend.

Worldcoin/Tether (WLDUSDT) opened at $1.305 on October 6 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $1.333 by 6:15 AM, and closed the 24-hour period at $1.215 by 12:00 ET on October 7. The pair experienced a strong bearish reversal after 10:00 ET, with total notional volume exceeding $105 million and a turnover of over 13.6 million contracts. The price declined into oversold territory, setting the stage for a potential rebound.

Structure & Formations

The price structure over the 24-hour period revealed a key resistance at $1.32–1.33 and support at $1.27–1.28, with a breakdown below the latter occurring after a long bearish candle on October 7 at 14:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $1.28–1.27, followed by a long lower wick at $1.26–1.24 as selling pressure intensified. A doji formed near $1.222 at 15:15 ET, signaling a possible short-term pause in the decline.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in a bearish signal by 8:00 AM, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period lines were not available for the full 24-hour cycle, but the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA around the early afternoon hours of October 7, confirming a bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish during the early afternoon with a crossover between the signal and line, indicating worsening momentum. RSI hit 27 by 15:15 ET, showing oversold conditions, although divergence between the two indicators suggests caution before expecting a strong rebound. The momentum is likely to remain bearish unless RSI rebounds above 30 with strong volume.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sell-off, particularly from 14:00 ET onward, as volatility increased. Price closed near the lower band at $1.215, suggesting a temporary oversold condition but not necessarily a reversal. A sustained bounce above the mid-band may indicate a possible consolidation, while a break below the lower band could trigger further declines.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the key bearish reversal at $1.27–1.24, peaking at 3.4 million contracts. Turnover also spiked during the same period, confirming the strength of the move. However, volume and turnover diverged slightly in the last few candles, with price continuing lower while volume softened, suggesting a possible slowdown in bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the key swing at $1.333 to $1.215 showed the price stabilizing near the 78.6% retracement at $1.221–1.222. The 61.8% level was at $1.262, which the price failed to hold. A potential rebound above the 50% retracement at $1.274 would be a bearish signal unless accompanied by strong volume and positive momentum indicators.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and the RSI falls below 30, with a stop-loss placed at the nearest swing high and a target of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This aligns with the observed bearish reversal seen in WLDUSDT on October 7. The setup was confirmed by both the bearish MACD crossover and the bearish engulfing candle structure, offering a high-probability short opportunity. The doji at $1.222 may act as a near-term support, which should be closely watched for a potential bounce or continuation of the decline.