Worldcoin's Technical Bull Case Faces Regulatory and Supply Headwinds

Worldcoin (WLD) has experienced a significant decline in value, dropping over 55% since the beginning of 2025, according to analysis by CCN. The price correction has been attributed to weak market demand for cryptocurrencies and broader sector volatility. Despite this, technical indicators suggest potential for a rebound. On the daily chart, WLD has formed a bullish pennant pattern, with a breakout above the upper boundary signaling renewed buying pressure. If sustained, this could push the price toward the $1.95–$2.31 range by year-end CCN^[1].

CoinPedia's analysis highlights a critical juncture for WLD, noting a recent breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart. The token surged to $2.21 in September 2025 before retracing to $1.20. A successful retest and hold of the $2.21 level could trigger a "Change of Character" (ChoCh) in its long-term bearish trend, potentially propelling the price toward $4.18 by year-end. Conversely, a breakdown below key support could see WLD fall to $1.00 CoinPedia^[2].

The project faces structural challenges, including regulatory scrutiny in regions like China Hong Kong, Portugal, and Spain, as well as ethical concerns over its biometric data collection practices. Critics highlight vulnerabilities such as a black market for World IDs and security breaches, including a 2023 incident where operator devices were compromised by malware CCN^[1]. Additionally, tokenomics data reveals that 84% of WLD's 10 billion supply remains locked, with upcoming unlocks set to increase daily emissions to 6.62 million tokens for two years. This heightened supply pressure has coincided with a 55% monthly price decline .

Recovery scenarios hinge on overcoming technical resistance and institutional adoption. CoinPedia notes growing interest from institutions and a potential AI-driven narrative, given WLD's ties to OpenAI founder Sam Altman. If the token regains momentum above $2.21, it could attract new liquidity and challenge previous highs. However, market analysts caution that sustained adoption and positive sentiment will require addressing governance concerns and demonstrating utility beyond speculative trading CoinPedia^[2].