World Liberty Financial/Tether Market Overview (WLFIUSDT) – 2025-10-11

• Price fell sharply from 0.1539 to 0.107 on 21:30 ET, signaling strong bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded dramatically as price fell below Bollinger Bands and RSI approached oversold territory.
• Recovery attempts since 00:00 ET were limited, with price hovering near 0.1250.
• Turnover and volume surged during the 21:30–22:00 ET collapse but subsided afterward.
• A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target is near 0.1261, suggesting short-term support.

World Liberty Financial/Tether (WLFIUSDT) opened at 0.1494 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 0.1645, and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.107 before closing at 0.1322 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. The pair saw a total trading volume of approximately 1.27 billion Tether, with a notional turnover of ~$201.6 million (based on average price of ~$0.14).

The price action over the past 24 hours featured a sharp bearish breakdown from a 0.1539 swing high at 19:30 ET to a 0.107 intraday low at 21:30 ET. This collapse followed a long consolidation phase and was marked by a large bearish engulfing pattern at the 21:15–21:30 ET timeframe. Price then tested the 0.1250 level multiple times in the overnight session with limited follow-through. The 15-minute 20 EMA now sits at 0.1281, slightly above the current price, indicating continued bearish pressure. The 50-period EMA is at 0.1290, reinforcing the downward bias.

Price is currently hovering near the 0.1250 psychological level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.1539–0.107 move at 0.1261. This level may offer near-term support. RSI is currently at 29.1, signaling an oversold condition, but divergence between price and the oscillator suggests that a meaningful rebound could be short-lived. The MACD has remained in negative territory, with the histogram shrinking slightly, pointing to reduced bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands have widened following the breakdown, but price remains below the lower band, indicating ongoing volatility.

Backtest Hypothesis
Applying a mean reversion strategy on WLFIUSDT based on the 15-minute Bollinger Bands could be tested by entering long positions when price crosses above the lower band with RSI below 30 and a bullish reversal candlestick pattern (e.g., a hammer or inverted hammer) forms. A stop-loss could be placed below the prior swing low, while a take-profit target could align with the 50-period EMA or the 61.8% Fibonacci level. While this approach appears to align with recent price behavior around the 0.107 low and subsequent bounce, it remains untested and could fail in a sustained downtrend without a clear reversal catalyst.