World Liberty Financial/Tether Market Overview

Summary• Price rallied from $0.141 to $0.152 before consolidating around $0.150.• Strong volume expansion in the morning saw a 15.2% increase in turnover.• RSI approached overbought territory, hinting at potential bearish reversal.• Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility with price near the upper band at peak.• Key support identified at $0.1484, resistance at $0.1525.

World Liberty Financial/Tether (WLFIUSDT) opened at $0.142 on November 12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1502 the following day at 12:00 ET. The pair touched a high of $0.1525 and a low of $0.141 during the 24-hour period. Total traded volume amounted to 65,231,126.4, with a notional turnover of approximately $9,770,195.44.

The price action showed a clear bullish bias during the early morning hours, with a powerful break above key resistance levels. A strong engulfing pattern formed around 06:30 ET, signaling a short-term reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. However, the following hours saw a pullback with the formation of a doji at 07:30 ET, suggesting indecision in the market. A key support level appears to have been retested at $0.1484, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligning closely with this level.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a healthy cross above the 20-period and 50-period SMA lines during the upward move. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA currently sits at $0.1443, indicating a longer-term bullish bias. The 200-period SMA at $0.1417 remains a critical support level to watch in the coming 24 hours.

The RSI indicator peaked at 68.3 near the high of the day, nearly entering overbought territory, while MACD showed a narrowing histogram as the rally slowed. Bollinger Bands indicated moderate volatility during the bulk of the 24-hour period, with price settling near the upper band at the peak and then drifting toward the center as volume waned. A contraction in the bands following the peak suggests a potential consolidation phase ahead.

The volume profile displayed a sharp increase in the early hours, especially between 03:30 ET and 06:15 ET, which coincided with the formation of the key engulfing candle. Notional turnover surged to $1,532,915 at 04:45 ET, with high trading activity observed during the breakout. However, a divergence was noted between price and volume after 07:30 ET, with volume declining despite price lingering near resistance. This divergence may foreshadow a potential reversal, especially as RSI approached overbought levels without confirmation from volume.

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart showed that the 38.2% retracement level aligned with the 0.1516 level, which was briefly tested in the late morning. The 61.8% level at 0.1497 coincided with a key support area and provided a bounce. A bearish move below 0.1484 could retest the 0.1474 level, which acted as a support in the early morning and could serve as a new target if the trend continues downward.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price dynamics, a backtest could be structured around the RSI indicator to validate entry and exit signals. Using a common definition of RSI overbought (>70 on a 14-day period), a potential entry signal would be generated as RSI approaches that threshold. A bearish exit could be defined as RSI crossing below 70, which aligns with the reversal of the overbought condition. Alternatively, crossing below the 50-level might offer an earlier exit, capturing a reversal in momentum before a full bearish trend is confirmed.

To enhance the strategy’s reliability, a stop-loss rule could be implemented—placing a stop below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.1497. A take-profit target might be set at 0.1525, the upper end of the recent consolidation range. Limiting the holding period to 5 days would mitigate exposure to unexpected volatility or shifting market conditions.

A backtest on WLFIUSDT over the period 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13 would provide valuable insight into the viability of this approach. By applying the above parameters and analyzing historical performance, one could refine the strategy for broader application or identify potential adjustments to better suit this specific pair.