World Bank Predicts 35% Gold Price Surge by 2025 Amid Uncertainties

World Bank analysts have maintained a bullish outlook for precious metals, predicting that gold prices will rise by approximately 35% year-on-year by 2025. This upward trajectory is expected to persist as some uncertainties begin to subside. However, a slight decline in gold prices is anticipated for 2026. Despite this, gold prices are projected to remain significantly higher than historical averages through 2025-26.

The report also highlights a strong performance for silver and platinum, with both metals expected to maintain their recent strength until 2026. The surge in silver and platinum prices is driven by robust industrial demand, with silver being a crucial component in solar panels and platinum used in automotive catalytic converters and laboratory equipment.

Analysts attribute the recent surge in gold prices to heightened policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, which have driven gold prices up by nearly 25% in the first half of 2025. This trend is expected to continue, shaping the market dynamics for precious metals in the near future. The report emphasizes the need for investors to closely monitor these developments as they navigate the evolving landscape of the precious metals market.

The World Bank's analysis indicates that the demand for gold has been bolstered by a significant increase in exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows during the first quarter of 2025, pushing investment demand to its highest level since 2022. Additionally, central banks' purchasing behavior continues to support gold demand, reflecting their reserve management strategies.

Silver prices have also seen a notable increase, rising by 20% in the first half of the year. The gold-silver ratio remains above its 10-year average, supporting a steady upward trend in silver prices. The World Bank forecasts strong demand for silver, driven by its dual role as an industrial input and a safe-haven asset. The supply of silver is expected to grow steadily in 2025, primarily due to increased mining output. Recycling is estimated to account for about 20% of the global supply, and this is expected to remain stable. Overall, strong demand is anticipated to drive silver prices up by approximately 17% year-on-year in 2025, with a further increase of 3% in 2026.

Platinum has been one of the strongest performers among precious metals this year, with prices surging by nearly 30% to reach their highest levels in over a decade. This increase is primarily due to supply constraints, with mining output expected to drop to its lowest level in five years. However, demand for platinum in the automotive and industrial sectors is projected to decline significantly, as these sectors account for nearly two-thirds of global platinum demand. Overall, supply tightness is expected to support platinum prices, with an anticipated year-on-year increase of 10% in 2025 and 2% in 2026.