Workday Gains 3.87% as Bullish Candlestick and MACD Golden Cross Signal Short-Term Rebound

Candlestick Theory

Workday (WDAY) has exhibited a two-day bullish trend, with a 3.87% gain on the most recent session closing at $242.66. The recent candlestick pattern suggests strong buying pressure, particularly if the high-low range of the last two sessions is narrow, indicating consolidation. Key support levels emerge around $230.73 (September 22 low) and $228.89 (September 2 low), while resistance is evident at $243.07 (September 22 high) and $244.5 (October 2024 peak). A potential bullish engulfing pattern may form if the next session closes above the prior high, confirming a reversal from recent volatility.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum appears aligned with the 50-day moving average (approx. $235–$240 range), which currently supports the upward bias. The 100-day MA ($230–$235) and 200-day MA ($235–$240) suggest a mixed trend, with the 200-day MA acting as a critical long-term benchmark. If WDAY sustains above $235–$240, the 50-day MA crossing above the 100-day MA could signal a stronger bullish bias. Conversely, a close below $230 would invalidate the short-term uptrend, aligning with the 100-day MA’s bearish crossover potential.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown a narrowing contraction, suggesting waning bearish momentum, while the recent golden cross (MACD line crossing above the signal line) historically correlates with positive short-term returns (56.41% win rate). The KDJ stochastic oscillator, with %K at overbought levels (~80–85) and %D trailing closely, indicates potential exhaustion in the rally. A divergence between %K and price action—where the stock continues to rise but %K fails to make higher highs—could signal a near-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with WDAY trading near the upper Bollinger Band ($243–$245 range). This suggests heightened buying interest but also overbought conditions. A reversion toward the 20-day moving average ($235–$240) would likely occur if the bands contract, reducing volatility. The current position near the upper band aligns with the RSI’s overbought threshold (~70), reinforcing caution about a potential correction.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged on the recent up days (e.g., 4.6M shares on September 22 and 5.9M on September 19), validating the price action’s strength. However, the volume has not yet exceeded the 20-day average (approx. 3.5M–4M), suggesting the rally may lack sustained institutional buying. A follow-through surge in volume on a break above $245 would be necessary to confirm a breakout, while declining volume despite higher prices could signal distribution.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI has entered overbought territory (~70–75), consistent with the stock’s recent gains. While this does not guarantee a reversal, it highlights the need for caution. A close below the 50-level would indicate weakening momentum, whereas a sustained move above 75 could extend the rally. The RSI’s divergence with price—where the stock makes higher highs but RSI lags—would strengthen the case for a near-term pullback.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the year’s major high ($294 on December 9, 2024) and low ($218 on September 16, 2025) include $245.43 (38.2% retracement), $240.66 (50% retracement), and $235.39 (61.8% retracement). WDAY’s current price ($242.66) is approaching the 38.2% level, which could act as a dynamic support/resistance zone. A break above $245.43 would target the $250–$255 range, while a drop below $240.66 would test the 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD golden cross strategy for WDAY demonstrates a 56.41% win rate over 30 days, with an average return of 1.48% and a maximum gain of 2.54%. This suggests the signal is effective for capturing moderate momentum-driven gains, particularly in volatile markets. Integrating this with the current technical backdrop—where the MACD golden cross coincides with bullish candlestick patterns and Fibonacci support—strengthens the case for a short-to-medium-term long bias. However, the overbought RSI and Bollinger Band proximity necessitate tight stop-loss placement near the 50% Fibonacci level ($240.66).