Woodward (WWD) Surges 12.36% on Record Earnings and Strategic Share Buyback — Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Woodward (WWD) surges 12.36% to $293.47, hitting a 52-week high of $293.57
• Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.09 beats estimates by 12.3% and grows 48% YoY
• $1.8B share repurchase program and 7%-12% 2026 revenue guidance fuel optimism
• Aerospace segment sales jump 20% to $661M, driven by LEAP/GTF demand and defense OEM growth
Woodward’s explosive move follows a blockbuster Q4 earnings report, with record sales, margin expansion, and a bold capital return plan. The stock’s 12.36% surge reflects investor confidence in the company’s strategic investments, including automation and the Spartanburg facility, and its ability to capitalize on aerospace and industrial tailwinds. With a 52-week high now breached, the focus shifts to whether this momentum can sustain.

Q4 Earnings Beat and Share Buyback Ignite Bullish Sentiment
Woodward’s 12.36% rally stems from a Q4 earnings report that far exceeded expectations. Adjusted EPS of $2.09 beat the $1.86 consensus by 12.3%, while revenue surged 16.5% to $995M, topping estimates by $61.1M. Aerospace sales grew 20% to $661M, driven by 40% growth in commercial services and 27% in defense OEM. Management highlighted strong LEAP/GTF aftermarket demand and a $1.8B share repurchase program, signaling confidence in capital allocation. The 7%-12% 2026 revenue guidance and 22%-23% aerospace margin target further reinforced optimism, with investors pricing in sustained growth from automation, the A350 wing spoiler actuator win, and strategic capacity expansion.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Mixed as WWD Outperforms Peers
The aerospace and defense sector showed mixed performance, with Howmet up 1.2% after a 13.8% revenue beat and Rocket Lab down 1.7% despite a 48% revenue surge. However, Woodward outperformed, gaining 12.36% on its Q4 results. The sector has underperformed by 7.3% over the past month, while WWD fell 1.2% during the same period. This divergence highlights investor preference for companies with clear margin expansion and capital return plans, such as Woodward’s $1.8B buyback and Spartanburg facility investments, versus peers facing execution risks or market volatility.

Options and ETF Plays for WWD’s Bullish Momentum
• RSI: 52.58 (neutral) • MACD: 1.19 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band ($272.21) • 200D MA: $225.81 (well above) • Key Resistance: $293.57 (52W high) • Support: $254.65 (lower band)
Options Picks:
• WWD20251219C280 (Call, $280 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 28.59% (moderate) • Leverage: 17.00% • Delta: 0.754 • Theta: -0.43 • Gamma: 0.014 • Turnover: 28,359
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($308.14), intrinsic value = $28.14. High delta ensures price sensitivity, while moderate IV and high turnover suggest liquidity. Ideal for capitalizing on short-term momentum.
• WWD20251219C290 (Call, $290 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 25.37% (moderate) • Leverage: 29.77% • Delta: 0.594 • Theta: -0.39 • Gamma: 0.019 • Turnover: 14,102
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($308.14), intrinsic value = $18.14. Strong gamma and moderate IV make this contract responsive to price swings, offering a balance between risk and reward.
ETF Note: No leveraged ETF data available. Focus on WWD’s options for directional exposure. Action: Aggressive bulls may consider WWD20251219C280 into a breakout above $293.57.

Backtest Woodward Stock Performance
Key findings1. Sample size & scope • 170 trading days (2022-01-01 — 2025-11-25) where WWD.O’s intraday high was ≥ 12 % above the previous close. • Event-study horizon automatically set to ±30 trading days (a widely-used default for post-event drift analysis).2. Post-event performance (vs. buy-and-hold benchmark) • Day 1: essentially flat ( +0.04 %), no statistical edge. • Day 10: +1.8 % excess return, still not statistically distinct. • Day 16-30: the excess return becomes both economically meaningful and statistically significant, compounding to +6.1 % by Day 30 (benchmark +3.2 %). • Win-rate climbs from ~48 % on Day 1 to ~70 % by Day 15–30.3. Practical take-aways • Immediate follow-through after a ≥12 % intraday spike is inconsistent; momentum typically consolidates for ~3 trading weeks before re-asserting. • For swing-trading, a “wait-3-days / hold-to-30-days” template historically captured most of the post-spike alpha. • Drawdowns during the window can still occur; consider stop-loss or scaling-in rather than entering full size on the event day.Parameter notes• Price type: “close” (default for event studies). • 30-day horizon: chosen as a balanced window to observe short- to medium-term drift; can be tightened/extended on request.Interactive reportThe full event-backtest dashboard (with cumulative P&L curve, heat-maps, distribution details, etc.) is embedded below—scroll or expand for deeper exploration.Feel free to drill down into individual event paths or request alternative thresholds/horizons for further insight.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside — Position for 2026 Growth
Woodward’s 12.36% surge is a clear signal of investor confidence in its earnings resilience, margin expansion, and strategic capital allocation. With aerospace demand for LEAP/GTF and defense OEMs surging, and the $1.8B buyback program in place, the stock is well-positioned to outperform in 2026. Key levels to watch include the $293.57 52W high and $254.65 support. The sector leader Boeing (BA) is up 1.61%, reflecting broader aerospace optimism. Investors should hold long positions or consider the WWD20251219C280 call for a high-conviction bet on continued momentum. Act Now: Add to positions if $293.57 holds, or use the 12/19 options to lock in near-term gains.