Who Really Won the NVDA Game in Congress?

The stage was set for a high-stakes game in April 2025, with NVIDIA's stock riding a powerful wave. The chipmaker's shares had soared 38.8% in 2025, a surge driven by the relentless AI boom. Against this favorable backdrop, two prominent lawmakers placed their bets, but with starkly different strategies.

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene made a straightforward, bullish wager. On April 9, 2025, she purchased NVIDIA stock, committing between $250,001 and $500,000. It was a clean bet on the stock's continued climb.

In stark contrast, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi executed a complex, hedged strategy earlier that month. On January 14, 2025, she sold 10,000 shares of NVIDIA common stock for $1 million to $5 million. Simultaneously, she bought 50 call options on the same stock. These options, with a strike price of $80 and an expiration date of January 16, 2026, gave her the right to buy NVDA at that price, effectively betting that the stock would rise sharply above $80 in the coming months. She also exercised other options and bought more calls, but the core move was selling shares while buying upside leverage.

The setup was clear. Both traders were playing the same AI-fueled rally, but one went all-in with a direct stock purchase, while the other used options to hedge her existing position and amplify potential gains. The market's tailwind was undeniable, but the real test would be who had the better read on where the stock was headed next.

The Math: Who Actually Made More Money?

The headline bet was on NVIDIA, but the real winner was determined by the final portfolio numbers for 2025. When the year closed, the returns told a clear story. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi ranked 28th among all Congress members with a portfolio gain of 20.1%. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene landed at 38th with a return of 11.7%.

The S&P 500 itself gained 16.6% for the year, meaning both lawmakers beat the market. But the gap between them is telling. The top 10 performers all outpaced the index by more than two times, showing how powerful focused trading can be. Yet Greene's return lagged behind Pelosi's, and both fell short of the elite group.

Pelosi's strategy—selling shares while buying call options—proved the more effective bet. It gave her a hedge against a downturn while still capturing upside, and the math shows it paid off. Greene's direct stock purchase, while bullish, yielded a lower return. In the game of congressional trading, the smarter play wasn't just a bigger bet, but a more nuanced one.

The performance gap between the two lawmakers comes down to a simple truth about trading: a smart bet isn't just about picking the right stock, but about structuring the position to win in any market move. Nancy Pelosi's strategy was a textbook example of tactical hedging, while Marjorie Taylor Greene's was a pure, unadulterated bet.

Pelosi's move was a classic two-part play. She sold 10,000 shares of NVIDIA common stock for $1 million to $5 million while simultaneously buying 50 call options with a strike price of $80 and an expiration date of January 16, 2026. This is a classic hedging strategy. By selling her shares, she locked in a portion of her gains from the stock's earlier run. Then, by buying the call options, she retained full upside exposure if the stock continued to climb. It's a way to protect existing profits while still participating in future rallies.

The math of the stock's move since that trade date shows why this approach likely outperformed. Since January 14, 2025, NVIDIA's share price has climbed 41.34%. For Pelosi, that meant her call options provided substantial leverage on that move. She didn't have to pay the full price for the stock; she paid a premium for the right to buy it at $80. With the stock now trading well above that level, those options would have been worth a significant sum, amplifying her return on the capital tied up in them.

Greene's strategy, by contrast, was straightforward and lacked that tactical flexibility. She purchased NVIDIA stock outright, committing between $250,001 and $500,000. While aligned with the stock's powerful 38.8% gain in 2025, her position was binary. If the stock had dipped, she would have faced a direct loss. There was no built-in hedge to protect her initial investment, and no leveraged upside component to boost her returns beyond the stock's simple appreciation.

The bottom line is that Pelosi's approach gave her the best of both worlds. She secured gains from a portion of her holdings while using options to bet on more upside. In a volatile market, that kind of structure often beats a simple, all-in bet. It's a lesson in risk management and smart money positioning.

The Bigger Picture: What This Means for Smart Money Signals

The trades of lawmakers like Pelosi and Greene are a fascinating data point, but they are just one piece of a much larger puzzle. When we look at the broader landscape of institutional activity, the signal becomes clearer. The average gain for Republican Congress members was 17.3%, which beat the S&P 500's 16.6% return. That suggests some members had successful timing, but it's a far cry from the kind of conviction-driven accumulation we see from the real smart money.

Institutional investors are the ones moving the needle on NVIDIA. Firms like BlackRock and Vanguard are the massive, long-term holders whose 13F filings show consistent buying. This is institutional accumulation, not the occasional, high-profile trade of a single member of Congress. Their moves are driven by deep fundamental analysis and a multi-year view, not by the latest headlines or political access. When these giants buy, it's a signal of alignment with the company's long-term growth story, like its dominant Data Center business fueled by AI demand.

The key risk for investors is conflating visibility with conviction. Congressional trades are visible, often breaking news, but they are typically small relative to the massive flows of institutional capital. A member selling a few thousand shares or buying a handful of options is a personal bet, not a vote of confidence from a $100 billion fund. The real skin in the game is in those 13F filings, where the sheer scale of buying tells you where the smart money is really positioned.

So, what's the takeaway? For all the noise around congressional trading, the most reliable signals come from the whales in the market. Their consistent accumulation of NVIDIA shares is a stronger indicator of long-term confidence than any single lawmaker's bet. The insider game is real, but the big players are playing a different, longer-term hand.