WMT Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Whale Moves to Watch for Jan 16 Expiry

• WMT trades at $120.25, down 0.09% with volume surging to 17.4M shares
• Put/Call OI ratio at 0.875 (calls dominate) with heavy call OI at $125 and $121 strikes
• Block trade of 16,691 WMT20260116C122 calls ($122 strike) hints at institutional bullishness

Here’s the thing: WMT’s options market is screaming upside potential right now. The call/put imbalance, whale-sized block trades, and technicals all line up for a breakout above $125—if the stock holds its intraday low of $119.03. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Sentiment in the Options Chain: Where the Money Is Flowing

The OTM call options with the most open interest are clustered between $121 and $125. That’s not random—it’s a sign of positioning. Traders are betting WMT will test its 52-week high of $120.51 and push higher. The $125 strike (OI: 10,625) is especially telling: it’s a psychological level where a lot of short-term buyers are likely waiting to lock in gains.

But here’s the twist: the put OI isn’t all doom. The $113 strike (OI: 2,025 for next Friday) and $120 strike (OI: 1,113) suggest some hedging activity. That means even bearish players aren’t betting on a collapse—they’re just preparing for a pullback. And that’s where the block trade of 16,691 WMT20260116C122 calls gets interesting. Someone big is buying the $122 strike, which is just $2 above today’s price. That’s not a speculative play—it’s a setup. They’re likely expecting a push to $125 before Friday’s expiry.

News That Backs the Bull Case (and a Few Red Flags)

WMT’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The 52-week high, AI-driven personalization, and Nasdaq-100 inclusion are all tailwinds. TD Cowen’s $136 price target isn’t out of reach if the AI rollout accelerates. But here’s the catch: the stock’s 42 P/E ratio is a red flag for value investors. And those insider sales? $13.5M in exec exits over three months isn’t great for sentiment. Still, the new Eastvale Supercenter opening and e-commerce expansion are real catalysts—especially if Walmart’s "Store of the Future" concept gains traction.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Price Levels to Watch

For options players:

• WMT20260116C122 (Jan 16 expiry, $122 strike): Buy this call if WMT closes above $121.50 today. The block trade here suggests a whale is already in the game. Target $125 for a 3.3% move.
• WMT20260123C121 (Jan 23 expiry, $121 strike): A cheaper alternative if the stock dips to $119.03 (intraday low). This gives you time to ride a rebound.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $119.03 if the price holds. Set a stop-loss below $118.75 (Bollinger Band lower bound).
• Target $125 if the AI hype and Nasdaq-100 inclusion drive momentum.
• Bearish hedge: Buy WMT20260116P113 (Jan 16 expiry, $113 strike) if WMT breaks below $119.03. This put has OI of 2,025 and could pay off if the stock corrects.

Volatility on the Horizon: Navigating WMT’s Bullish Setup with Caution

The key takeaway? WMT is in a tight squeeze between bullish positioning and valuation concerns. The options market is pricing in a 4% move to $125 by Friday, but the puts at $113 and $120 are there for a reason. If you’re going long, do it with a clear exit plan. And if the stock stumbles, don’t panic—those puts could be your safety net. The next 48 hours will tell us if this is a breakout or a false flag. Stay ready, and keep an eye on $125. That’s where the action is.