WMT Options Signal Bullish Bias at $110 Strike: Here’s How to Play the Breakout

• Walmart’s Q2 earnings miss and tariff concerns weigh on short-term sentiment, but long-term bulls eye $110 as a key breakout level.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $110 (12,893 contracts) and $107, while puts dominate at $95 and $102.
• Technical indicators hint at a potential rebound: RSI near 50.7, Bollinger Bands squeezing toward $104.59, and a 30D MA at $104.08.

Here’s the deal: Walmart’s options market is sending a mixed but actionable signal. On one hand, the stock’s 0.7% drop today and bearish Kline pattern suggest near-term caution. But the long-term bullish trend, combined with heavy call open interest at $110, points to a potential breakout scenario. Let’s break it down.

The $110 Call Wall and Market Sentiment

The options chain is telling a story of optimism. For Friday’s expiration, the $110 call (OI: 12,893) is the most watched strike, followed by $107 and $108. This isn’t just noise—it’s a bet by big players that WMT will rally above $103.67 (today’s intraday high) and test $110. Why? Because the 200D MA at $97.25 and Bollinger Bands’ lower bound at $99.64 suggest the stock has room to run if it breaks through key resistance.

On the downside, puts at $95 (OI: 6,924) and $102 (OI: 3,468) show hedging activity. The put/call ratio of 0.85 (favoring calls) reinforces the bullish tilt. But don’t ignore the risk: if WMT fails to hold above $103.02 (30D support), the 200D support at $97.04 could become a battleground.

News Flow: Tariffs vs. Innovation

Walmart’s recent news is a tug-of-war between headwinds and tailwinds. The Q2 earnings miss and tariff warnings from CEO Doug McMillon are bearish, but the RFID partnership with Avery Dennison and AI integration with OpenAI are game-changers. These moves aren’t just about efficiency—they’re about future-proofing Walmart’s retail dominance. Analysts like UBS ($122 target) and Telsey ($118) see long-term value, even as the P/E ratio of 40.2x raises eyebrows.

Here’s the kicker: The market is pricing in a rebound. The $110 call wall suggests traders expect Walmart to shrug off near-term pain and rally on its digital and operational upgrades. But if tariffs persist and consumer spending falters, the $95 put strike could become a magnet for panic selling.

Actionable Trade IdeasFor Options Traders:

• This Friday’s $110 Call (OI: 12,893): Buy if WMT closes above $103.67. Target $110 for a 7.4% gain. Stop-loss below $102.38 (intraday low).
• Next Friday’s $106 Call (OI: 2,230): A safer play if the stock consolidates. Target $108, with a stop at $104.59 (Bollinger middle band).
• Bearish Play: Buy the $95 Put (OI: 664 for next Friday) if WMT breaks below $99.64. Target $97.04 (200D support).

For Stock Traders:

• Long Entry: Buy WMT near $103.02 (30D support) with a target at $105 (Bollinger upper band). Stop-loss at $101.50.
• Short-Term Play: Sell short if WMT breaks below $102.38. Target $99.64, but watch for a rebound on positive news.
• Options Collar: Buy the $102 Put (OI: 3,468) and sell the $107 Call (OI: 6,111) to hedge downside while capping upside. Ideal for holding WMT stock.

Volatility on the Horizon

Walmart’s story isn’t just about numbers—it’s about resilience. The RFID and AI partnerships are long-term plays, but the stock’s near-term fate hinges on earnings momentum and tariff negotiations. If Q3 guidance holds ($0.58–$0.60 EPS) and the $110 call wall materializes, WMT could see a 7% pop. But if tariffs bite harder than expected, the $95 put strike might force a reevaluation.

Bottom line: This is a stock with divided signals. The options market is bullish, but the fundamentals are a tightrope walk. Your move? Ride the $110 call if you’re confident in Walmart’s innovation edge—or play it safe with a collar. Either way, keep an eye on $103.67. That’s the line in the sand.