WMT Options Signal Bullish Bet: How $110 Call OI and AI News Point to Holiday Season Breakout

• Walmart (WMT) surges 1.09% to $103.54, with JPMorgan hiking its price target to $128.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $110 and $105, while puts cluster at $102 and $92.50.
• CEO’s AI-driven efficiency push and Pecana milk rollout add catalysts for near-term momentum.

Here’s the core insight: options market sentiment and technicals align for a bullish setup, with a 1.09% intraday gain and oversold RSI (31.11) hinting at a potential rebound. The key question isn’t if WMT will move—it’s how far and when.

The Call-Put Imbalance and Where Smart Money Is Betting

Let’s start with the options chain. For Friday’s expirations, the top OTM call has 7,757 contracts at $110, while the next tier sits at $107 and $105. For puts, the largest OI is at $102 (6,092 contracts), with a long-dated bearish bet at $94. The put/call ratio for open interest is 0.91, meaning calls dominate—a clear bullish signal.

But here’s the twist: The next Friday’s options show even more aggressive positioning. The $110 call has 21,041 contracts, and the $115 call (a 10% move from current price) has 11,484 contracts. Meanwhile, puts are heavily stacked at $92.50 (29,493 contracts), suggesting a small but vocal bearish camp.

This isn’t just noise. High open interest at $110 and $105 means institutional players are hedging or speculating on a rally, likely tied to the holiday season and AI-driven efficiency gains. The risk? If the stock stalls below $104 (lower Bollinger Band at $99.29 is a distant concern), the puts could trigger a short-term selloff.

Why the Newsflow and Options Data Are in Sync

JPMorgan’s $128 price target isn’t just a number—it’s a signal. Analysts are betting on Walmart’s AI-led operational overhaul, from smart carts to dynamic pricing. The CEO’s "best in the world" comment isn’t hyperbole; it’s a roadmap.

Combine that with the Pecana milk rollout (a subtle but real boost to grocery margins) and the stock’s 30D moving average at $103.76 (just below current price), and you’ve got a multi-layered catalyst.

But here’s the catch: Retailers are volatile. If the broader market tanks or consumer spending falters, WMT could face headwinds. The options data already prices in some of this—the $92.50 put is a hedge against a 10% drop, but the calls suggest conviction.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Stock Entries

For options traders, the most compelling play is the $110 call expiring next Friday (21,041 OI). Why? It’s a strike where the stock would need to break through $107 (current 30D resistance) to validate the bullish case. A breakout here could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and momentum buying.

For stock buyers, consider entry near $103.50 if the price holds above $102.32 (intraday low). A successful test of this level could push the stock toward $107 (resistance) and then $110 (call-heavy zone). A stop-loss below $101.65 (30D support) would protect against a breakdown.

Bearish players might eye the $102 put expiring Friday (6,092 OI), but the data suggests this is more of a hedge than a directional bet. The real risk is complacency—if the stock gaps up on earnings, the $110 call could explode in value.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch

The next 10 days are critical. Walmart’s Q3 earnings (expected soon) could validate or shatter the bullish narrative. If the AI-driven efficiency gains translate to better-than-expected margins, the $110 call could become a $120 play.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $92.50 strike isn’t just a bearish bet—it’s a psychological floor. If the stock dips below $100, the puts could create a short-term bounce.

In short: This is a stock with clear direction, but it’s not without risks. The options data and newsflow both point to a holiday season rally, but retail traders need to stay nimble.

Final Takeaway

Walmart isn’t just a defensive play anymore. It’s a tech-driven retail story with AI at its core. The options market is pricing in a $110+ move, and the fundamentals are lining up. For traders, this is a setup where calls at $110 and stock entries near $103.50 offer the best risk/reward.

But remember: The market is a fickle beast. Even the best-laid plans need a stop-loss and a plan B. Stay informed, stay flexible—and watch that $110 strike like a hawk.