WLDUSDT Market Overview: Volatility, Selloff, and Oversold Bounce

• WLDUSDT dropped from 1.217 to 0.264 in 15-minute candle data, showing a massive 77% decline.
• Volatility spiked dramatically between 21:00 and 21:30 ET, with a 70% drop in 30 minutes.
• A bearish breakdown below key support levels was confirmed by a massive volume surge during the selloff.
• Price has since consolidated between 0.86–0.98, with no clear short-term direction.
• Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) suggest oversold conditions near 0.90.

Worldcoin/Tether (WLDUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at 1.197 on October 10 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 1.217 before collapsing to a low of 0.264. The pair closed at 0.965 by 12:00 ET on October 11. Total volume for the period reached 387,726,348.9 units, with notional turnover hitting $361,003,702. The selloff, particularly between 21:00 and 21:30 ET, was marked by a dramatic breakdown in sentiment and price.

On the 15-minute chart, WLDUSDT displayed a classic bearish breakdown pattern between 1.19 and 1.16, with a sharp decline following a series of lower highs and lower lows. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET, confirming the downward bias. A doji formed at 1.167 at 19:45 ET, indicating indecision and a potential short-term bottoming process. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages were well above the current price, indicating a strong bearish bias over the medium to long term.

MACD lines diverged sharply during the selloff, with the histogram turning increasingly negative between 21:00 and 21:30 ET. RSI hit oversold levels near 0.90, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could be on the horizon. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, with price briefly dipping below the lower band before a partial rebound. This expansion indicates high volatility and a potential period of consolidation or reversal.

Volume spiked dramatically during the sell-off, reaching a peak of 47,582,854.8 units in the 21:30 candle, indicating panic selling. Turnover also surged during this period, confirming the strength of the selloff. However, volume has since declined, with price consolidating between 0.86 and 0.98. A divergence between the volume and price action—volume declining while price remains in a narrow range—suggests exhaustion on the bearish side. Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.808 (61.8%), 0.856 (78.6%), and 0.908 (78.6%) appear to be key levels for near-term support and resistance.

Looking ahead, WLDUSDT may attempt a short-term rebound from current oversold conditions, but a test of the 0.90–0.86 range could trigger further selling if bears regain control. A sustained break above 0.985 could signal a bullish reversal in the near term, but until then, the pair remains in a bearish trend. Investors should monitor volume and key Fibonacci levels for confirmation of a reversal or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest strategy using the RSI (14) and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart could offer insights into short-term bounces and sell-offs. The strategy would involve entering long positions when RSI drops below 30 and price crosses above the 50 EMA, with a stop loss below the recent swing low. Short positions would be triggered when RSI rises above 70 and price closes below the 50 EMA. Given the recent volatility and divergence in volume and price action, a trailing stop-loss could be more appropriate than a fixed one. This approach, while not infallible, may provide a probabilistic edge in managing the high-volatility environment.