Wintermute CEO: Shifted from 'Shotgun Investing' with 4% Project Success Rate in 2025

Wintermute, the leading crypto market maker, has drawn renewed scrutiny for its recent Bitcoin deposits into Binance. On New Year’s Day 2026, the firm net deposited 1,213 Bitcoin into Binance, valued at approximately $107 million. This occurred during a low-liquidity period, heightening suspicions among market participants about potential dumping strategies.

The firm continued depositing Bitcoin into the exchange over the next two days, adding 624 and 817 Bitcoin respectively. In total, it injected 4,709 Bitcoin into Binance while withdrawing 2,055, for a net deposit of 2,654 Bitcoin. During this period, Bitcoin prices dropped from around $92,000 to as low as $88,000, intensifying the debate about the firm's market influence.

Critics argue that Wintermute exploits periods of low liquidity to manipulate the market. They claim that the timing of large deposits aligns with periods when retail investors are more vulnerable to stop-loss triggers. This, they say, creates artificial downward pressure on prices and benefits institutional players.

Why Did This Happen?

Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy has dismissed such claims as conspiracy theories. He argues that modern market structures are more transparent and robust compared to the 2022 crisis. According to Gaevoy, the firm's actions are not malicious but necessary for maintaining liquidity in times of market imbalance.

The CEO emphasized that when buy and sell orders on exchanges are heavily imbalanced, market makers must move positions to ensure continued trading. While this may increase short-term volatility, Gaevoy insists it is not intentional manipulation.

How Did Markets Respond?

Supporters of market makers argue that institutions like Wintermute play a crucial role in providing liquidity. Without such actors, crypto markets could experience even greater volatility and slippage, which could destabilize the entire ecosystem. Industry analysts have also acknowledged that market makers are a "necessary evil" in the current system.

However, retail investors remain skeptical. They argue that institutional players have an unfair advantage in capital, algorithms, and information. In an environment with limited regulatory oversight, these advantages can be exploited to the detriment of ordinary traders.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Wintermute Ventures has also shifted its investment strategy, moving away from a "shotgun" approach to a more selective model. In 2025, the firm reviewed 600 companies but only funded 4% of them. The 2025 investment strategy focused on early-stage projects, with most funding structures involving equity or token options. The firm aims to make 23 investments in 2025, independent of its trading business.

This shift reflects a broader trend in institutional investment behavior. Firms are now prioritizing fewer, more strategic investments rather than spreading capital broadly. While this reduces risk, it also means that the overall number of new projects receiving institutional backing has dropped significantly.

The debate over market transparency in crypto remains unresolved. In traditional finance, the activities of large institutions are not typically visible to the public. But in crypto, on-chain data makes every large transaction visible. This transparency, while beneficial in many ways, can also lead to misinterpretation and unnecessary market panic.

Retail investors often interpret large on-chain movements as signals of dumping or buying, without fully understanding the underlying mechanics. This creates a feedback loop in which market sentiment amplifies price swings. For investors, the challenge lies in distinguishing genuine market signals from noise.

As the market continues to evolve, the role of market makers like Wintermute will remain central to liquidity but also a source of controversy. Whether their actions are seen as routine operations or manipulative strategies will depend on how the broader ecosystem interprets transparency and institutional behavior.