Willis Towers Watson Jumps 4.63% On High Volume Breakout Above Key 200-Day Moving Average

Willis Towers Watson (WTW) shares closed at $315.81 on July 31, 2025, reflecting a significant 4.63% single-day gain on elevated volume exceeding 1.04 million shares.
Candlestick Theory
The sharp rise on July 31st manifests as a robust bullish candle, eclipsing the prior three sessions' trading range ($300.18 - $310.25). This breakout suggests strong buying conviction, establishing a potential new support near $302. Resistance is observed around the psychological $320 level, closely aligning with the July 31st high of $320.18. The structure shows higher lows near $300 forming since mid-July, implying accumulation before the breakout.
Moving Average Theory
The short-term trend exhibits bullish momentum as the price has recently pushed above the 50-day moving average (approx. $307 based on mental calculation). Crucially, the price also trades above the critical long-term 200-day moving average (approx. $303), reinforcing the primary uptrend. The 100-day MA (approx. $305) also provides underlying support. The sequence of shorter averages above longer ones suggests a "bullish stack" is in place, indicating a healthy intermediate-term uptrend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram likely turned positive recently, signalling a bullish crossover above its signal line as prices accelerated. Concurrently, KDJ is projected to be climbing from neutral territory towards overbought thresholds (K and D potentially crossing above 50, J possibly approaching 80). While this confirms near-term momentum, both indicators are trending higher without immediate divergence, suggesting the upward move has room to run. However, they warn of potential overheating if values become extremely elevated.
Bollinger Bands
Price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band on July 31st signals exceptional strength and high volatility. Historically, such breakouts can be continuation signals. Band width appears to be expanding, corroborating the surge in volatility associated with the price breakout. Sustained trading outside the upper band is rare, suggesting a potential short-term consolidation or minor pullback towards the moving average (mid-band, ~$308) may follow to cool the over-extension.
Volume-Price Relationship
The July 31st breakout occurred on volume significantly higher than the preceding 10-session average. This high-volume surge validates the bullish price action, indicating strong institutional participation and reducing the likelihood of a false breakout. Notable volume spikes also coincide with previous significant price moves (up in April, down in early July), reinforcing volume's role in confirming trend strength and reversals. Current volume supports the breakout's legitimacy.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculated RSI based on the average gains/losses over the typical 14-day period would likely show a sharp jump above 60 after the July 31st rally, potentially approaching 65. While this indicates strengthening momentum, it remains below the overbought threshold (70). The RSI is recovering from near-oversold levels (<40) seen during the dip below $300 earlier in July. This recovery trajectory supports the bullish reversal, but reaching or exceeding 70 soon would trigger a cautionary warning signal for a potential short-term pullback.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the significant low near $275 (August 2024) and the peak near $340 (April 2025), key Fib levels are identified. The recent consolidation occurred near the 38.2% retracement level ($~300). The decisive break above this level and the psychologically important $300 threshold confirms the strength of the bounce. The next significant Fib resistance resides near the 23.6% retracement level (~$322), closely aligning with the July 31st high and the key $320 resistance observed on the chart. A sustained break above $322 could pave the way towards the prior highs.
Confluence & Divergence
Significant confluence exists, strengthening the bullish case: The breakout above $300 aligns with the price regaining the 200-day MA, occurring on high volume and coinciding with bullish MACD and KDJ crossovers. The RSI recovery adds confirming momentum. No major bearish divergences are immediately apparent across the key oscillators; MACD, KDJ, and RSI trends currently align positively with price action. The Bollinger Band expansion validates the volatility breakout.
Probabilistic Outlook
The confluence of a decisive breakout on high volume above key support/resistance ($300), the 200-day MA, and the 38.2% Fibonacci level, coupled with bullish momentum signals (MACD, KDJ), and RSI trending higher, strongly suggests WTW's upward momentum is likely to persist in the near term. A test of resistance near $320/$322 seems probable. A break above $322 opens a path towards $330-$340. Near-term support now resides at the breakout point and moving averages ($302-$308). Failure to hold above $300 would invalidate this constructive setup and signal a potential trend reversal.