Will Bitcoin Hit a New All-Time High? Bets on Trump Victory and Market Indicators Fuel the Surge
Bitcoin has surged more than 10% over the past week, outperforming both global stock indices and gold. As the odds of Donald Trump winning the U.S. election rise—given his favorable stance toward cryptocurrencies—some traders see Bitcoin as part of the so-called Trump trades. Trump has pledged to make the U.S. the global leader in cryptocurrency.
"Excitement in prediction markets is driving high levels of implied volatility and boosting spot Bitcoin prices," said Arisa Toyosaki, co-founder of Cega, a crypto derivatives provider. The surge is further fueled by significant inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since October 11, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows surpass $1.6 billion.
Beyond the Trump-related optimism, several indicators suggest Bitcoin may reach a new all-time high. First, Bitcoin's open interest (OI) weighted perpetual futures funding rate has reached a multi-month high, signaling continued bullish sentiment in the short term.
Additionally, on-chain data shows a sharp decline in Bitcoin supply on exchanges, now at a near five-year low. This indicates that traders are holding onto their BTC rather than selling, further supporting the possibility of a sustained rally.
Finally, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded positive flows in four of the last seven trading days, pointing to ongoing institutional interest in these investment products.
With both political and market forces aligning, many are speculating that Bitcoin may be on the verge of hitting a new record high.