Wheaton Precious Metals Surges 3.65% on Strategic Gold Stream Deal and Analyst Upgrades – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) hits 52-week high of $117.17, surging 3.65% intraday
• Q3 earnings miss EPS and revenue forecasts, but $300M Hemlo Mine gold stream fuels optimism
• RBC upgrades WPM to Outperform with $130 price target, citing undervalued royalty model

Wheaton Precious Metals is riding a wave of strategic momentum as its $300 million gold stream agreement with Hemlo Mining Corp. and a bullish analyst upgrade from RBC Capital spark a 3.65% intraday rally. The stock’s surge to a 52-week high of $117.17 reflects investor confidence in its streaming model and sector tailwinds, despite a Q3 earnings miss. With gold prices near $4,240/oz and silver’s explosive 2025 rally, WPM’s dual exposure to precious metals positions it as a key player in the evolving mining landscape.

Strategic Gold Stream and Analyst Upgrades Drive WPM's Rally
WPM’s 3.65% intraday surge is fueled by two pivotal developments: a $300 million gold stream agreement to fund the Hemlo Mine acquisition and a RBC Capital upgrade to Outperform with a $130 price target. The gold stream, part of a $1.092 billion financing package, secures Wheaton’s long-term reserves and aligns with its royalty model’s scalability. Meanwhile, RBC’s upgrade highlights undervalued valuation metrics, including a 43.6x dynamic P/E, amid broader sector optimism. Gold’s 58% year-to-date gain and silver’s 100%+ rally further amplify demand for streaming companies like WPM, which benefit from rising metal prices without operational risks.

Gold Sector Gains Momentum as NEM Surges 4.83%
The gold sector is rallying on macroeconomic tailwinds, with Newmont (NEM) surging 4.83% as gold prices approach $4,240/oz. WPM’s 3.65% gain lags NEM’s momentum but outperforms gold miners like Barrick (ABX) and New Gold (NGT), which trade flat. ETFs like GOAU (+2.1%) and GDX (+3.4%) reflect sector strength, driven by Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions. WPM’s streaming model, however, offers higher leverage to gold prices than traditional miners, making it a compelling play for investors seeking amplified exposure to the sector’s upward trajectory.

ETFs and Options Playbook: Leveraging WPM's Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 2.09 (bullish divergence), RSI: 64.12 (neutral), 200D MA: $92.08 (well below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $116.95 (above upper band of $113.17), signaling overbought conditions
• Key Levels: 200D MA at $92.08 (strong support), 52W high at $117.17 (resistance), and 30D MA at $103.24 (intermediate support)

Top Options Contracts:
• WPM20251219C114 (Call):
- Strike: $114, Expiry: 2025-12-19, IV: 9.50%, Leverage: 32.20%, Delta: 0.98, Theta: -0.44, Gamma: 0.024, Turnover: 25,607
- IV: Low volatility, Leverage: High amplification, Delta: Near 1.0 (in-the-money), Theta: High decay, Gamma: Low sensitivity
- This contract offers a high-probability play on WPM’s near-term momentum, with a 5% upside scenario yielding a 47% payoff (from $116.95 to $122.80).
• WPM20251219C116 (Call):
- Strike: $116, Expiry: 2025-12-19, IV: 33.13%, Leverage: 35.30%, Delta: 0.616, Theta: -0.399, Gamma: 0.062, Turnover: 53,947
- IV: Moderate volatility, Leverage: High amplification, Delta: 0.616 (moderate directional bias), Theta: High decay, Gamma: High sensitivity
- This contract balances directional exposure with volatility, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (payoff of 80% from $116.95 to $122.80).

ETF Play: GOAU (U.S. Global GO Gold and Precious Metal Miners ETF) at $43.33 (+2.1%) offers a diversified leveraged bet on WPM’s sector. With a 2.1% intraday gain, GOAU mirrors WPM’s momentum and benefits from gold’s 58% YTD rally. Aggressive bulls should consider WPM20251219C116 into a break above $117.17, while conservative traders may use WPM20251219C114 for a low-risk, high-reward setup.

Backtest Wheaton Precious Stock Performance
The backtest of WPM's performance after an intraday surge of at least 4% from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 54.72%, the 10-day win rate is 56.69%, and the 30-day win rate is 61.81%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 6.07%, which occurred on day 57, suggesting that WPM can deliver decent gains following a significant intraday surge.

WPM's Bullish Momentum Gathers Steam – Act Now Before the Next Move
WPM’s 3.65% rally is underpinned by a strategic gold stream, analyst upgrades, and sector tailwinds. With gold near $4,240/oz and silver’s 2025 outperformance, WPM’s streaming model offers asymmetric upside. Key levels to watch include the 52W high at $117.17 and the 200D MA at $92.08. Investors should prioritize WPM20251219C116 for directional exposure and GOAU for sector diversification. Meanwhile, Newmont’s 4.83% surge underscores the gold sector’s strength—position now before the next catalyst.