Wheaton Precious Metals: A Golden Opportunity in Q1 2025?

Investors in Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) are eagerly awaiting the company’s Q1 2025 results, set to be released on May 8, 2025, after market close. This report will mark the first quarterly update since Wheaton surpassed its 2024 production targets and outlined an ambitious growth trajectory through 2034. With strong analyst support, strategic project milestones, and a focus on sustainability, WPM is positioned to deliver a compelling narrative for long-term investors.

2024: A Year of Exceeding Expectations

Wheaton’s 2024 performance set a high bar, with 633,481 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) produced—surpassing its guidance range of 550,000–620,000 GEOs. Key drivers included:
- Salobo (Vale-operated): A record quarterly production of gold due to higher grades and recoveries.
- Constancia (Copper Mountain): Contributions from the Pampacancha deposit boosted silver output.

Despite headwinds at San Dimas and Zinkgruvan, these wins underscored Wheaton’s portfolio resilience. The company’s ability to outperform in a year marked by fluctuating commodity prices and operational challenges highlights its strategic asset mix and operator relationships.

2025 Guidance: Growth Amid Transition

For 2025, Wheaton forecasts production of 600,000–670,000 GEOs, a ~10% midpoint increase from 2024. This targets growth from:
- Antamina (Southern Copper): Higher silver grades from copper-zinc ore mining.
- New projects: Initial contributions from Blackwater, Goose, Mineral Park, and Platreef.
- Aljustrel Mine (Trelleborg): Resumption of zinc and lead production in Q3 2025 after a shutdown due to low zinc prices.

Offsetting factors include lower silver grades at Peñasquito and reduced Pampacancha mining at Constancia. While the lower end of the range reflects cautious assumptions, Wheaton’s track record of exceeding guidance suggests upside potential.

Analyst Optimism and Financial Metrics

Analysts are bullish on WPM’s near-term prospects. Raymond James recently raised its Q1 2025 EPS estimate to $0.53, up from $0.48, citing stronger production trends. This revision reflects optimism about:
- Salobo’s sustained performance and the ramp-up of new projects.
- Inventory normalization: Reduced sales-lag from Q4 2024, when gold sales fell 23% below production due to inventory buildup.

The full-year 2025 EPS consensus stands at $1.95 (per Edison Investment Research), while Raymond James projects a $2.40 EPS for the year. These estimates align with WPM’s long-term goals, including a 40% production increase to 870,000 GEOs by 2029 and over 950,000 GEOs annually from 2030–2034.

Key Projects and Operational Momentum

WPM’s growth engine is fueled by a pipeline of projects, including:
- Blackwater (Sibéo): A copper-gold mine in Canada expected to deliver ~100,000 GEOs annually.
- Koné (Montage Gold): A high-margin gold project in Côte d’Ivoire with production starting in 2025.
- Fenix (Glencore): A cobalt-rich copper-gold project in the DRC, set to contribute 100,000 GEOs annually by 2028.

The restart of Aljustrel Mine in Q3 2025 adds further zinc and lead exposure, diversifying WPM’s revenue streams.

Sustainability and Innovation: A Strategic Differentiator

WPM’s commitment to ESG principles is exemplified by its Future of Mining Challenge, which awarded $1 million to ReThink Milling Inc. in March 2025 for its Conjugate Anvil Hammer Mill (CAHM) and MonoRoll technologies. These innovations aim to slash energy use and emissions by up to 40% in mineral processing.

Such partnerships underscore WPM’s leadership in cleantech adoption, aligning with global ESG trends and investor demand for sustainable practices.

Risks and Considerations

• Commodity Prices: WPM’s guidance assumes gold at $2,600/oz and silver at $30/oz—higher than 2024’s averages. A prolonged price slump could pressure margins.
• Operational Risks: Project delays (e.g., Fenix’s permitting) or lower-than-expected grades could impact production.
• Geopolitical Factors: Supply chain disruptions or regulatory changes in key jurisdictions (e.g., DRC, Peru) pose risks.

Conclusion: A Strong Foundation for Growth

Wheaton Precious Metals enters Q1 2025 with a solid foundation of operational excellence, a robust project pipeline, and a clear ESG strategy. The May 8 results will provide critical insights into whether the company is on track to meet its 2025 targets and sustain its ~10% annual GEO growth rate.

With $688.4 million in net cash and minimal debt, WPM is well-positioned to capitalize on accretive streaming deals and navigate commodity volatility. Analysts’ revised EPS estimates and the stock’s $83.40 average target price reflect confidence in its long-term trajectory.

Investors should watch for Q1 production metrics, cash flow details, and updates on Aljustrel’s restart and Koné’s progress. If WPM continues its outperformance trend, it could solidify its status as a top-tier precious metals play in an increasingly ESG-conscious market.

Final Thought: Wheaton’s blend of production growth, innovation, and financial discipline positions it as a compelling investment—especially for those betting on precious metals and sustainable mining practices. The May 8 results will be the first test of this vision in 2025.