U.S. Wheat Futures: A Contrarian Play Amid Overpessimism

With U.S. wheat futures (WN25) near five-year lows, markets have overly fixated on bearish supply factors—like improved U.S. harvest prospects and Canadian stockpiles—while ignoring critical risks. .

show a sharp decline, but three overlooked catalysts suggest a rebound:
1. Russia's record harvest: Expected to hit 94 million tons, its surging exports could strain global logistics, not just flood markets.
2. U.S. harvest delays: Wet spring weather slowed planting in the Plains, risking lower yields.
3. China's import shifts: Beijing's trade disputes with Australia and India leave a gap; U.S. wheat could fill it—if logistics allow.

Meanwhile, are near historic highs, primed for a squeeze if supply tightens. Geopolitical risks—like Argentina's rail strikes delaying exports—add volatility.

Investment thesis: Buy WN25 for a tactical long position. Overpessimism has priced out weather and geopolitical risks, creating a contrarian opportunity. Target $6.00/bushel by Q4 2025, with a stop below $5.00.

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