Whales Target ADA as Retail Pessimism Hits 5-Month Low

Cardano whales have seized an opportunity as the project's retail sentiment turns bearish, potentially signaling a favorable buying window for larger investors. Recent on-chain data and sentiment analysis indicate that Cardano (ADA) is in a phase of market consolidation, with whale activity and shifting retail sentiment setting the stage for potential accumulation by long-term investors. Santiment data reveals that the bullish-to-bearish commentary ratio for ADA has dropped to 1.5:1, the lowest in five months, suggesting a heightened level of pessimism among smaller traders. This pattern historically aligns with the start of ADA rallies, as retail sentiment often reaches its lowest point just before significant price movements occur.

The bearish retail sentiment is coinciding with a 5% price rebound for ADA, a potential sign that a local bottom has been established. This dynamic is consistent with prior cycles, including a mid-August scenario where a 2:1 bullish-to-bearish ratio aligned with a price surge. Analysts suggest that the current sentiment divergence—where price action is outperforming pessimistic trader commentary—could be a reliable signal for short-term trading opportunities. In crypto markets, sentiment extremes are particularly influential, with euphoric spikes often preceding sharp corrections and deep pessimism setting the stage for accumulation by larger players.

Cardano's risk score, a metric used by analyst Dan Gambardello to assess market conditions, is currently at 36, indicating a "moderate buy" phase. Gambardello has emphasized that a risk score reaching 75 historically marks a turning point for ADA, signaling a high-risk environment. He outlined a disciplined approach to profit-taking, suggesting that long-term investors should consider selling portions of their holdings as ADA reaches the $1 to $3 price range. This range, he argues, offers a strategic opportunity for securing gains after years of holding. Moreover, if ADA's risk score rises toward 75 while the price is on the ascent, Gambardello plans to aggressively scale out of his position, citing historical patterns that indicate reduced momentum in such high-risk environments.

Whale activity further underscores the shifting dynamics within the Cardano ecosystem. Prominent analyst Ali Martinez reported that whales have sold 50 million ADA over a 48-hour period, intensifying short-term selling pressure. These large-volume transactions have pushed ADA closer to the $0.80–$0.82 support zone, a critical area for determining whether the asset will experience further declines or stabilize for a potential recovery. Historical patterns suggest that whale selling often precedes reaccumulation at lower price levels, particularly when retail traders capitulate. Santiment's bearish retail sentiment appears to align with this behavior, as many smaller investors, frustrated by weeks of price declines, are exiting their positions.

Technical indicators also highlight a decisive moment for Cardano's price action. ADA is currently trading near the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level at $0.82, a key technical support zone. Independent analyst Quantum Ascend has labeled this area a “make-or-break zone,” where the price either confirms a recovery or extends its downward trend. If ADA manages to hold above $0.80–$0.82, analysts project that it could retest the $1 level, with further potential extensions to $1.20 and $1.40. These price targets align with Gambardello's bullish framework and underscore the importance of strategic planning in navigating the current market cycle.

Whales and institutional investors are increasingly leveraging sentiment shifts and on-chain activity to execute their strategies, particularly as retail traders show signs of fatigue. The divergence between retail pessimism and whale accumulation behavior suggests that the market may be setting up for a potential reversal, especially if ADA can stabilize and regain upward momentum. Analysts are closely monitoring key price levels and sentiment indicators to assess the likelihood of a sustained bullish move in the coming months.

Source: [1] Cardano Bull Reveals When He'll Start Selling His ADA Bag (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/09/05/cardano-bull-reveals-when-hell-start-selling-his-ada-bag/) [2] Cardano's Bearish Retail Crowd Hands Whales a Buying Window (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/06/cardano-s-bearish-retail-crowd-hands-whales-a-buying-window) [3] Cardano's Bearish Retail Crowd Hands Whales a Buying Window (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cardano-bearish-retail-crowd-hands-033000835.html) [4] Cardano Whales Are Dumping, Traders Not Happy: Will ADA Price Hit New High? (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cardano-whales-dumping-traders-not-081256153.html)