Whales and Shorts Collide as ADA's $1 Hurdle Looms

Cardano (ADA) has shown mixed signals in recent weeks, with both bullish and bearish indicators influencing traders’ expectations. Over the past seven days, ADA has been trading in a narrow range between $0.82 and $0.87, with buyers defending the lower end of the range and sellers limiting upward movement. This consolidation follows ADA’s brief touch of $1.01 in August, after which the price lost momentum and retreated. Analysts are now closely watching whether September will mark a decisive breakout toward $1.00.

Technical indicators suggest a potential shift in momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned green, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, signaling a potential trend reversal. However, this movement has yet to be confirmed by increased trading volume. Additionally, open interest remains at approximately $292 million, indicating moderate participation but not a full commitment from traders. Net long positions remain weak at -147 million, while net shorts are significantly higher at 1.45 billion, underscoring the dominance of bearish bets. Nonetheless, ADA’s ability to hold steady within the range suggests that sellers are not in full control.

A notable bullish signal came from technical analyst Ali Martinez, who highlighted that ADA has triggered a buy signal on the TD Sequential indicator. This tool is commonly used in technical analysis to identify potential reversal points by tracking sequences of price movements. Martinez’s analysis suggests that ADA’s recent downtrend may be exhausting, potentially setting the stage for a price rebound toward higher levels in the near term. His chart analysis, shared on X (formerly Twitter), has drawn attention from ADA investors looking for confirmation of a reversal [1].

Support and resistance levels are key to understanding ADA’s near-term trajectory. If ADA breaks above the $0.87 resistance, it could target the $0.95 and eventually the $1.00 level. On the downside, a failure to hold above $0.82 could push the price toward $0.76, prolonging consolidation and delaying any potential rally. A strong short squeeze could also occur if buying pressure surges, as significant short positions are concentrated between $0.82 and $0.85. Conversely, if buyers fail to push above key resistance levels, ADA could face renewed downward pressure.

Whale activity has also played a role in shaping ADA’s price movement. Over the past week, whales dumped 30 million ADA, contributing to bearish sentiment and increasing selling pressure. This activity coincided with a bearish shift in the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) indicators and a price slide below key support zones. If ADA continues to decline, the next major support level lies near $0.70, where a break could open the door to a test of $0.57–$0.51, a critical area for potential accumulation or further decline [3].

In summary, ADA remains a closely watched asset as it consolidates near a crucial level. With momentum indicators improving and the TD Sequential signaling a potential reversal, there is still a chance for ADA to break above key resistance and move toward $1.00. However, the dominance of short positions and recent whale selling highlight the risks of a further decline if bullish momentum fails to materialize.

Source:

[1] Cardano Price Analysis: Buy Signal Appears, But Will ADA Finally Hit $1 in September? (https://captainaltcoin.com/cardano-price-analysis-buy-signal-appears-but-will-ada-finally-hit-1-in-september/)

[2] Cardano (ADA) Signals Recovery – Is a Strong Upside... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1090776-20250903)

[3] Why Cardano faces RISK at $0.70 as whales dump 30M ADA (https://ambcrypto.com/why-cardano-faces-risk-at-0-70-as-whales-dump-30m-ada/)