Whales Move $73M In ADA—Is a Breakout to $1 Imminent?

Cardano (ADA) is currently trading around $0.88, maintaining key support at $0.85 as bulls eye a potential breakout toward $1. The token has shown resilience despite recent volatility, with institutional inflows reaching $73 million in 2025 and total custody holdings exceeding $900 million. These inflows have been accompanied by significant whale activity, with large investors purchasing 100 million ADA tokens in just 24 hours, signaling strong demand from high-net-worth players.

The Cardano network has also demonstrated robust performance in terms of transaction volume and cost efficiency. It has processed over 112 million transactions this year, with average fees staying below $0.25 at press time. This efficiency positions Cardano as a competitive platform for payments and decentralized finance (DeFi), particularly in comparison to other blockchains where fees often spike during congestion. Analysts note that sustained low fees are crucial for adoption in enterprise use cases.

From a technical standpoint, Cardano is forming a stair-step pattern with higher lows on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting the market is moving from consolidation into a potential expansion phase. Analyst Sssebi highlighted ADA reclaiming ground toward $0.90, aligning with the upper boundary of a descending triangle. A close above this level would indicate early strength, with confirmation expected at $0.95, where a breakout would set a new local high. The RSI indicator still has room before reaching overbought territory, indicating potential for momentum to extend if buying pressure continues.

Trend Rider noted that ADA’s oscillators are showing a bullish shift, with indicators curling upward and approaching a threshold where bullish strength usually accelerates. This development suggests underlying momentum is building as the price consolidates. With oscillators climbing and close to flipping positive, conditions are forming for ADA to sustain a recovery beyond short-term resistance levels.

However, Cardano faces bearish pressures as well. The Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric has reached its highest level since July, indicating many holders are cashing out at gains. A long-to-short ratio of 0.87 from Coinglass suggests traders are bearish and expect further declines in ADA’s price. The RSI is currently at 44, and while it is not yet oversold, it suggests room for sellers to push further. The key support zone is $0.8528; a break below this level could lead to further declines toward $0.8264 and possibly $0.8033.

On-chain data from Ali Martinez revealed that Cardano whales accumulated 100 million ADA in the last 24 hours. This accumulation is significant as it provides demand support that could cushion against short-term volatility. Historically, aggressive whale buying has preceded price swings in Cardano, and this development fits similar conditions from past cycles. Market data also shows rising futures open interest for ADA, which is approaching levels last seen during the previous peak cycle. Open interest measures the total value of outstanding futures contracts and often signals growing market participation. Rising values can precede stronger volatility and create conditions for directional price moves.

If Cardano’s price continues to hold above the $0.84 support zone, it could trigger a healthier correction before the next upward move. Investor capitulation and technical pullbacks often set the stage for new rallies once selling pressure subsides. Analysts suggest that a stable base at $0.84 could be the foundation for the next move higher. The market is closely watching whether ADA can maintain above $0.84 and whether on-chain metrics like NPL show reduced investor losses.

In summary, Cardano is at a critical juncture. If bulls can drive the price above $0.95 and confirm a breakout, the token could target $1.20 and eventually $1.50. However, if bearish momentum continues and ADA breaks below $0.84, the token may face deeper corrections. Analysts like Rafaela Rigo project a path toward the $3.00 to $3.20 zone if the trend of higher lows continues, emphasizing that ADA maintains a higher low formation on the monthly chart. The next few sessions will be crucial in determining Cardano’s immediate direction.