Whales Bet Big on AAVE as Bullish Bets Climb and Shorts Fade

A significant whale activity has recently been observed in the Aave (AAVE) market, with a newly created whale wallet purchasing 50,000 AAVE tokens worth approximately $15.07 million. This move, according to on-chain data from Onchain Lens, signals increased conviction among large investors, often interpreted as a bullish sign for the token’s future performance. The purchase coincides with a broader trend of accumulation, as spot netflow for AAVE has been negative for four consecutive days, indicating that investors are withdrawing tokens from exchanges.

The accumulation is not limited to the spot market. CryptoQuant data reveals that whales have dominated AAVE futures for seven consecutive days, with average order sizes increasing significantly. This surge in futures activity is reflected in a 48.9% rise in derivatives market volume to $829.78 million and a 2.6% increase in open interest (OI) to $624 million. These metrics typically suggest increased capital inflow and heightened participation in the derivatives market. However, the Long/Short Ratio remains below 1, hovering at 0.94, indicating that shorts still account for 51% of total futures accounts. This suggests that while some whales are bullish, others are betting on a potential price drop, highlighting the mixed sentiment in the market.

Technically, AAVE appears to be positioning itself for a potential breakout. A bullish crossover in the Stochastic RSI has been observed, reaching 21, a level often associated with strengthening buyer momentum. This technical indicator is commonly used to predict trend continuation, and if the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also confirms the upside movement, it could set the stage for a move toward $336. However, if this momentum fails to materialize, AAVE could retrace to the $296 support level before attempting another upward move.

Whale activity and market structure also point to more ambitious price targets. AAVE is currently trading just above a key support zone, with the Fibonacci extension identifying $371 as the first major resistance level and $430 as a potential long-term target. The token has been respecting an ascending trendline since April, and as long as this trendline holds above $298, the path toward $430 remains intact. The Long/Short Ratio has also seen a recent uptick, reaching 1.76, with longs accounting for 63.84% of positions. This shift toward long bias reinforces the bullish narrative, although it also raises the risk of sharp corrections if market conditions change.

Despite the bullish indicators, the market remains cautious. AAVE’s price is currently at $303, down from a recent high of $331, and the bearish MACD signals suggest that near-term weakness could persist. A comprehensive technical analysis indicates that AAVE could see a 28% upside to $385 within 30 days, assuming key resistance levels are broken. However, the risk-reward profile must be carefully managed, as a breakdown below $275 could trigger a deeper retracement toward $245. Analysts emphasize that while the longer-term structure supports a bullish outlook, traders should remain vigilant for signs of weakening momentum, such as a MACD histogram extending into negative territory or sustained trading below key moving averages.