Whale Wallets Surge 15% as Institutional Bitcoin ETFs See $1.5 Billion Inflows

On-chain data from the market intelligence platform Santiment reveals that the number of wallets holding at least 10 BTC has surged to levels not seen since March. This increase in whale and shark activity coincides with significant institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a deep-pocketed confidence despite recent price consolidation below critical resistance.

According to Santiment, there has been a notable spike in the number of whale and shark wallets holding over 10 BTC, equivalent to over $1.07 million at the current price. The number has steadily grown in the last few weeks to hit 152,280, a level last seen on March 12, reflecting long-term optimism from experienced investors. These heavy hitters typically act during moments of retail panic, scooping up discounted BTC in what analysts call “smart money” behavior.

This activity aligns with observations from market watcher Axel Adler Jr., who noted that despite $66 billion in realized profits over the past two months, mainly from short-term holders, Bitcoin’s price has held firm. Adler Jr. assessed that the resilience was largely due to new demand absorbing these sell-offs, indicating significant buy-side strength. Additionally, earlier in the month, Binance saw nearly 4,500 BTC withdrawn in a single day, with over $800 million in stablecoin inflows that same week. The dual action of BTC exiting exchanges and fresh liquidity arriving was a possible pointer to a deep accumulation phase, potentially led by whales positioning for future upside.

ETF flows also add another dimension to the story, with reports of U.S. spot BTC ETFs pulling in nearly $1.5 billion in just three days, marking one of its most aggressive accumulation periods since inception. BlackRock’s IBIT was at the forefront of this charge, purchasing 9,400 BTC this week alone.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $107,353, down slightly by 0.4% in the last 24 hours and a more noticeable 2.6% for the week. This means that despite a respectable 3.1% uptick over the past fortnight, the king cryptocurrency still underperformed the broader crypto market, which had gained 3% over seven days. The asset previously touched $108,066 but failed to hold that level, with investor Daan Crypto Trades noting that it is consolidating just under the critical $108,000 to $110,000 resistance zone. In his estimation, a breakout from the current wedge pattern could open the path to a new all-time high for BTC, provided it clears the range.

Bitcoin’s dominance is also up. It is currently at 62.8% but previously reached 65.7%, its highest level in four years, suggesting that capital is flowing into BTC rather than altcoins.

The surge in large Bitcoin investors signals a growing confidence among deep-pocketed investors despite Bitcoin trading below $108,000. The rise in whale wallets suggests that these investors may be anticipating a significant price movement, potentially driven by several macroeconomic factors. One key indicator to watch is the broad U.S. money supply, known as M2. After months of contraction, M2 growth turned positive in early April, indicating an increase in available cash for speculative assets like Bitcoin. Historically, major Bitcoin rallies have followed periods of positive M2 growth, suggesting that the current trend could support a price surge. Additionally, bank reserves have remained above $3 trillion, providing ample liquidity for lending and investment, which is favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is another crucial factor. The Fed has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, effectively pulling money out of the system. However, on March 19, the Fed announced a reduction in the pace of these reductions, which could lead to increased liquidity and support for Bitcoin. Furthermore, the cost of dollar funding for multinational companies has been low, with a roughly 2% discount when borrowing dollars and converting them into euros. This cheap funding can lead to increased investment in riskier assets, including Bitcoin.

The illiquid supply of Bitcoin, which refers to coins held in cold storage and not actively traded, has also climbed. This increase suggests that a significant portion of Bitcoin is being held for long-term investment rather than short-term trading, which could indicate bullish sentiment among investors. The illiquid supply climbed from just under 14 million in December 2024 to roughly 14.30 million, reflecting a growing trend of long-term holding.

Investors who track these macroeconomic indicators often catch Bitcoin's next lift while others are still debating headlines. The current set of signals suggests that central bankers, particularly the Federal Reserve, could be creating conditions for a sharp run-up in Bitcoin's price. Savvy investors should build their positions slowly, using strategies like dollar-cost averaging to mitigate timing risk and be prepared for when liquidity gushes.