Whale Selloff and Risk Score Signal ADA's High-Stakes Crossroads

Cardano (ADA) is currently in a consolidation phase, with analysts and traders closely monitoring key price levels and market dynamics to gauge whether the asset is poised for a significant upward move. Technical indicators and whale activity suggest a period of uncertainty, but several experts remain cautiously optimistic about ADA’s long-term trajectory. The recent selling pressure from large investors, however, has introduced short-term volatility that could delay a breakout.

A key development in the ADA narrative is the “risk score” framework used by crypto analyst Dan Gambardello, who bases his sell strategies on this proprietary metric. The score ranges from 0 to 100, with levels above 75 historically signaling a high-risk environment for ADA. In previous bull cycles, Cardano reached risk scores of 86 and 93 before entering correction phases, and Gambardello has positioned 75 as a critical threshold for scaling out of holdings. At present, ADA sits at a risk score of 36, which Gambardello classifies as a “moderate buy,” indicating early-stage bullish momentum. However, he cautions that the score can rapidly rise, as seen in prior cycles where Cardano moved from 34 to 76 in just a few weeks, coinciding with a sharp price increase from $0.09 to nearly $0.59.

Technical analysis also supports a potential breakout scenario. Jesse Peralta and Mr. Banana have highlighted that ADA is pressing against a long-term descending trendline and entering the markup phase of the Wyckoff cycle. A breakout above the $1.10 resistance level could trigger a parabolic price movement, with immediate targets set around $1.80 to $2.00. The Wyckoff model further aligns with Cardano’s broader accumulation phase, suggesting that once ADA clears its consolidation range, buyers may drive the price toward $1.20–$1.50 in the short term and potentially beyond $2.00.

Despite these bullish signals, recent whale activity has created headwinds. Over the past 48 hours, large holders sold nearly 50 million ADA, pushing the price closer to the $0.80–$0.82 support zone. Analysts like Ali Martinez warn that such a large-scale offload can create short-term pressure, but they also note that these moves are often absorbed by new demand if the overall sentiment and fundamentals remain strong. The current dip has also triggered bearish sentiment among retail traders, with the positive-to-negative comment ratio falling to 1.5:1 from 12:1 in early August. Historical patterns suggest that bearish sentiment can act as a contrarian signal, with larger players often accumulating at lower prices during this phase.

Fundamental developments also bolster the case for ADA. Analyst Sssebi highlighted that Cardano’s ecosystem is gaining strength through upcoming upgrades, including the Leios hard fork, Hydra scaling integrations, and the Midnight privacy layer. These updates, combined with growing interest in a potential ADA ETF, contribute to a more robust infrastructure that could attract both retail and institutional investors. The timing of these developments coincides with a technical setup that may confirm a breakout, reinforcing the narrative that ADA is entering a new growth phase.

Looking ahead, ADA must first establish itself above the $0.84 level, which is a key psychological and technical threshold. If buyers can hold above this level, the price could test higher resistance around $0.90–$1.00, with a sustained move above $1.10 likely confirming a broader bullish trend. While whale selling and bearish sentiment remain short-term risks, the combination of technical momentum and strong fundamentals positions Cardano as a candidate for a significant price move in the coming months.

Source: [1] Cardano Bull Reveals When He'll Start Selling His ADA Bag (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/09/05/cardano-bull-reveals-when-hell-start-selling-his-ada-bag/) [2] ADA Eyes $2 Breakout as Wyckoff Cycle and Trendline Pressure Align (https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/cardano-price-prediction-ada-eyes-2-breakout-as-wyckoff-cycle-and-trendline-pressure-align) [3] Cardano Whales Are Dumping, Traders Not Happy: Will ADA Price Hit New High? (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cardano-whales-dumping-traders-not-081256153.html) [4] Cardano Sentiment Turns Bearish but ADA Still Attractive for Smart Money (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cardano-sentiment-turns-bearish-ada-092540539.html) [5] Cardano (ADA) Price Expected to Recover Following Prolonged Decline (https://intellectia.ai/news/crypto/cardano-ada-price-to-rebound-after-prolonged-decline-all-you-need-to-know)