Whale Offloads 1M PI Tokens, Pressuring Price Below $0.2065 Resistance

Pi Network (PI) continues to face headwinds as it struggles to break past the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. On December 18, 2025, PI holds above the $0.2000 level but remains constrained by key resistance at $0.2065. A significant whale investor deposited over 1 million PI tokens in the last 24 hours, raising concerns about reduced investor confidence.

The recent price action shows PI breaking out of a descending channel pattern, but momentum remains fragile as the Supertrend indicator and the 200-period EMA form a formidable barrier. Analysts are closely watching for a sustained close above $0.2065, which could open the door to higher resistance levels between $0.2179 and $0.2221.

Meanwhile, the broader bearish trend persists, with technical indicators like the RSI and MACD showing mixed signals. Traders remain on edge as PI grapples with selling pressure and uncertainty over future token unlocks.

Why the Standoff Happened

The recent bearish pressure on PI is partly attributed to the large-scale offloading of 1.13 million tokens by the Pi Foundation wallet #4 over the last 24 hours. Such movements typically signal a lack of confidence in the short-term price direction and can trigger increased selling pressure as investors react to the market's shifting dynamics.

Further complicating matters is the looming token unlock event scheduled over the next 30 days. Approximately 165.93 million PI tokens—representing 3.35% of locked supply—will enter circulation, with the largest unlock set for December 25. Analysts suggest that during bearish trends, these unlock events can exacerbate downward pressure on price.

PiScan data reveals that the whale who deposited over 1 million tokens on Gate.io still holds a substantial 7.9 million PI tokens. This suggests a possible strategic sell-off to reduce exposure rather than an outright bearish bet. However, the sheer volume of tokens being offloaded has not gone unnoticed by the market.

Risks to the Outlook

Pi Network's 4-hour chart continues to show a bearish structure, with the price respecting lower highs and lower lows. The 200-period EMA at $0.227 to $0.230 remains a critical resistance ceiling. Any recovery attempts toward this level have historically attracted fresh selling, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

The Supertrend indicator remains red, indicating that sellers control the near-term direction. If PI drops below the $0.2000 support level, it could trigger a retest of key pivot points at $0.1934 and $0.1847. These levels are crucial in determining whether the bearish trend will continue or if a short-term stabilization can occur.

The broader technical outlook is further complicated by ongoing network upgrades. As Testnet2 moves toward version 23, temporary disruptions have already paused trading on some platforms, including OKX. While the upgrade is expected to improve security and performance, short-term volatility and liquidity issues are likely to persist until operations resume fully.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, the near-term outlook for PI is precarious. A successful defense of the $0.2000 level is critical to preventing a deeper decline. If buyers manage to stabilize the price in this zone, it could allow for a short-term consolidation or even a modest rally toward $0.216. However, a breakdown below $0.2000 could expose PI to further downside risks, potentially bringing the $0.193–$0.190 range into focus.

The 4.95 billion PI tokens currently locked will continue to exert supply-side pressure, with daily unlocks averaging 5.53 million tokens. This means ongoing volatility is likely, particularly if the price remains below the 200 EMA. Analysts emphasize that any upside attempts must first reclaim the $0.227–$0.230 level to shift momentum decisively in favor of a broader recovery.

Investors are also advised to remain cautious given the mixed technical signals and the influence of token supply dynamics. Until PI regains control above the key resistance levels and absorbs the ongoing unlocks, the bearish trend is expected to remain in place.