Whale Activity and ETF Flows Shape Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Trends in Early 2026

Bitcoin ETF inflows have rebounded, logging $1.8 billion in weekly net inflows as of early January 2026, the highest since October 2025. This trend is part of a broader resurgence of institutional interest, as ETFs account for a growing share of Bitcoin demand. Despite the inflows, total net assets under management across US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain 24% below their Q4 2025 peak, indicating that the recovery is still in its early stages.

Ethereum ETFs have also experienced notable inflows, with BlackRock's US Ethereum ETF recording a daily flow of $149.2 million on January 16, 2026. Grayscale's ETHE product saw a $3.9 million inflow on January 13, 2026, signaling gradual but steady growth in Ethereum's ETF market.

XRP ETFs reached a significant milestone with a $1.51 billion total asset base as of January 15, 2026. This follows a $17.06 million daily inflow into XRP ETFs, led by major providers like Grayscale and Bitwise. The inflows reflect institutional confidence, especially after regulatory clarity on XRP following legal developments in 2024 and 2025.

Why the Move Happened

Bitcoin ETF inflows have been driven by long-term structural demand. Since January 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have purchased about 710,777 BTC, outpacing new supply of 363,047 BTC from the network. This imbalance supports the argument that ETFs could absorb more than 100% of new Bitcoin supply in 2026, as institutional demand is expected to grow.

Ethereum's ETF inflows are also structural in nature. Spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded $474.6 million in inflows over four days, outpacing Ethereum's network supply and reflecting a broader shift in institutional exposure to crypto assets.

XRP ETF inflows are gaining traction as XRP moves closer to being recognized as a utility asset in global payments. Ripple's expanding ecosystem, including its RLUSD stablecoin, is creating more use cases for XRP, making it an attractive target for institutional investors.

How Markets Responded

Bitcoin's price reached $97,000 as of January 18, 2026, supported by the ETF inflows. However, the price has yet to break through the $100,000 level, a key psychological threshold. Analysts suggest that sustained inflows across multiple weeks are needed to restart a durable uptrend.

Ethereum saw a price increase of 11% year-to-date, reaching $3,310. On-chain activity surged, with active addresses rising to a 28-month high of 995,779 on January 15. This indicates growing user engagement and transaction volume, which aligns with Ethereum's broader adoption goals.

XRP's price remains in the low-$2 range, with a 3-month drawdown of 18.11%. Despite strong ETF demand, price action has not yet broken key resistance levels. However, the ETF inflows are acting as a floor, limiting sharp declines and stabilizing the market.

What Analysts Are Watching

Bitcoin ETFs are being monitored closely for signs of sustained demand. The total net assets under spot Bitcoin ETFs are still below Q4 2025 levels, indicating that market participants are cautious. A return to consistent inflows is seen as essential for a meaningful BTC price rally toward $100,000 or higher.

Ethereum ETFs are drawing attention for their potential to reshape the market. With Ethereum ETFs purchasing more than 6,964 ETH per day on average, the cumulative impact on price could become more pronounced in the coming weeks. On-chain metrics like transaction volume and active addresses are key indicators of Ethereum's momentum.

XRP ETFs are being analyzed for their role in institutional adoption. With XRP ETFs now holding over $1.51 billion in AUM, the focus is on whether this capital will translate into a broader price appreciation or remain contained within the ETF structure. Analysts also watch for any regulatory shifts that could impact XRP ETFs or broader XRP market dynamics.

Institutional investors and analysts are also tracking the impact of macroeconomic factors, including regulatory clarity and global macro events. The delayed Clarity Act draft, for example, has created mixed sentiment in the market. Traders are watching for further regulatory developments and their potential impact on ETF flows and price action.

Finally, on-chain metrics are playing a key role in assessing Bitcoin and Ethereum's fundamental strength. Metrics like the 90-day Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) and the 200-day EMA are being closely monitored for signals of sustained buyer demand. These indicators help traders and analysts distinguish between temporary price corrections and more enduring trends.