Whale Accumulation Hits Cycle High: The 2026 Flow Battle

The market is caught in a classic bearish tug-of-war. On one side, a wave of institutional selling is draining liquidity. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a second consecutive week of outflows, totaling $1.7 billion globally, with $1.65 billion of that concentrated in the United States. This marks a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment, with assets under management falling by $73 billion since October highs.

On the other side, a powerful on-chain accumulation is building. In a single week, two newly created wallets executed massive withdrawals from Binance, scooping up approximately 3,500 BTC valued at around $249 million and 30,000 ETH worth about $63 million. This coordinated move by whales reduces tradable supply, a key scarcity signal that has already helped stabilize prices after a brutal weekly loss.

The divergence frames a critical flow battle. While broader institutions are exiting, concentrated whales are buying, a pattern historically associated with cycle turning points. The setup is a textbook bear market signal: large holders accumulate while sentiment and flows deteriorate, creating a tension that will likely dictate the next major price move.

The Accumulation Shift: Broadening from Whales to Dip Buyers

The buying is no longer just a whale story. For the first time since late November, Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score has climbed above 0.5, hitting 0.68. This aggregate metric signals a broad-based shift, with accumulation now spreading across nearly all wallet cohorts. The pattern suggests the market is moving from a phase of concentrated, high-stakes whale buying to something more synchronized and widespread.

The most aggressive dip buying has come from a specific cohort: wallets holding 10 to 100 BTC. These mid-sized holders stepped in decisively as prices fell toward $60,000 last week. Their participation is a key signal, indicating that value is being recognized beyond the ultra-rich, with a broader group of investors willing to accumulate during a severe drawdown.

This shift frames a more mature accumulation phase. The initial whale withdrawals created scarcity and stabilized the price, but now the entry of these dip buyers adds depth and sustainability to the buying. It's a classic sign that the capitulation event is giving way to a more coordinated bottoming process, where the flow of money is becoming less dependent on a few large actors.

Catalysts and Risks: The Path to a New Equilibrium

The flow battle now hinges on a few critical price levels and the sustainability of recent institutional moves. The immediate technical line in the sand is $70,000. A sustained break below that level, as briefly seen earlier this week, could trigger a wave of liquidations and accelerate the price toward the $60,000 support zone. That move would validate the bearish sentiment and likely deepen the distribution from long-term holders.

On the flip side, the market has shown it can absorb a sharp reversal. On February 2, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a powerful almost $562 million in net daily flows, one of the largest single-day inflows since early January. This surge demonstrates that institutional demand can re-enter quickly, even from a position of net outflows. Yet its sustainability remains uncertain, as it followed a period of heavy redemptions and occurred in a thin, risk-off market.

The ultimate bottom will be determined by whether broad accumulation can consistently absorb ongoing distribution. The recent dip buying from mid-sized holders is a positive sign, but the market remains defined by an unresolved tug-of-war. As long as long-term holders continue to distribute and institutional flows are volatile, the path to a new equilibrium will be dictated by which force-whale and dip buying or ETF selling and liquidations-can dominate the flow.