A Whale Is 25x Short on ETH and 5x Short on XMR, With the Current Total Position Value of $61.9 Million

A whale has opened a 25x short position on Ethereum (ETH) and a 5x short position on Monero (XMR), with the combined position value totaling $61.9 million as of January 15, 2026. The whale deposited 3 million USDC into HyperLiquid, shorting 18,260.74 ETH ($60.63 million) and 1,838.06 XMR ($1.27 million). This represents a significant bearish bet against both assets, indicating a belief in near-term price corrections.

Such leveraged positions are rare in the crypto space and often signal a shift in market sentiment. The ETH short alone exposes the whale to over $60 million in potential losses should the price rise. Given the high leverage, even a modest upward movement could trigger substantial liquidation risk. This highlights the ongoing volatility in the crypto market, despite growing institutional adoption and ETF flows.

Ethereum has seen renewed institutional interest in early 2026, with U.S. spot ETFs recording a $130 million net inflow on January 13, 2026, led by BlackRock. The inflow followed several weeks of mixed activity and marked a return of buying pressure across multiple funds. Grayscale’s ETHE also reported a $3.9 million inflow on the same day, signaling growing confidence among investors. This inflow followed several weeks of mixed activity.

Ethereum’s price movement in early 2026 has been influenced by both ETF inflows and technical analysis. On January 13, 2026, ETH broke above a tightening daily triangle near $3,330, opening chart targets toward $4,000. The breakout was confirmed by candlestick patterns and volume indicators, suggesting sustained buying pressure. The $3,300 level has become a key threshold, with institutional inflows supporting the price.

Ethereum’s institutional demand has also been driven by its yield-bearing nature. With a staking yield of approximately 2.8%, Ethereum has attracted investors seeking passive income, especially as Bitcoin lacks native staking capabilities. Bitmine Immersion Technologies has staked $5.62 billion in ETH, highlighting the long-term conviction of institutional players.

Why Did This Happen?

The whale’s bearish position on Ethereum and Monero reflects a belief that short-term volatility may outweigh the long-term bullish fundamentals. Despite ETF inflows and institutional staking interest, the whale’s strategy suggests a focus on near-term corrections or sideways consolidation. The 25x leverage amplifies this view, indicating a high conviction in the downward movement.

Such positions are often taken during periods of high volatility or uncertainty. In Ethereum’s case, the whale’s bet may also reflect concerns about regulatory developments or macroeconomic conditions. However, the recent ETF inflows and positive technical indicators suggest that the market remains generally bullish.

How Did Markets Respond?

Ethereum’s price response to the whale’s position has been mixed. On January 14, 2026, ETH traded around $3,352, up 1.26% in 24 hours. The market has shown resilience despite the bearish short position, with volume reaching $25.37 billion and confirming ongoing buyer interest. This suggests that while the whale's bet is significant, it is not the dominant narrative in the broader market.

Technical indicators also support a continuation of the uptrend. RSI stands at 67.00, close to overbought territory, while the MACD histogram remains positive. The price is above the EMA20 ($3,133.75), reinforcing the short-term bullish bias. However, Supertrend remains bearish, indicating that breaking the $3,438 resistance may require additional volume.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring key resistance and support levels to gauge the market’s next move. The strongest resistance is at $3,437.78, with confluence on 3D and 1W timeframes. A breakout above this level could open the door to $4,000, while a failure to clear it may result in a pullback to $3,229.73.

On the bearish side, analysts are watching $3,229.73 and $3,081.06 as critical support levels. A sustained move below $3,229 could trigger a deeper correction, potentially testing $3,056.50. The strength of these supports will be determined by volume and market participation.

Ethereum’s overall market structure remains bullish, with the ADX indicator at 28, signaling a strong trend. However, the RSI is nearing overbought levels, which may lead to short-term consolidation or profit-taking. A successful breakout above $3,438 could validate the bullish case and attract further institutional demand.

Market participants are also tracking macroeconomic developments, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and the progress of the CLARITY Act in the Senate. Clarity on Ethereum's regulatory status could influence institutional adoption and ETF flows in the coming months.

Institutional players remain optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term prospects. With rising usage, network upgrades, and growing staking interest, ETH continues to gain traction as a blue-chip crypto asset. However, short-term volatility and leveraged positions like the whale’s will continue to influence price dynamics.