Welltower Surges 4.85% On Heavy Volume As Technicals Signal Bullish Breakout

Welltower (WELL) rose 4.85% in the latest session on significant volume, closing at $165.96 after testing the year-to-date high of $167.20. This marks a decisive breakout from the recent consolidation range and warrants comprehensive technical evaluation.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action reveals a bullish engulfing pattern formed between 2025-07-28 (-2.02%, dark candle closing near lows) and 07-29 (4.85% white candle engulfing prior body). This reversal signal at $158.24 support is validated by the breakout above the descending trendline connecting July peaks ($167.20, $162.23, $161.74). Key resistance now shifts to the psychological $170 level, while the $158-$160 zone serves as immediate support, aligned with the July lows and the 50-day moving average.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($159.80) maintained dynamic support during July's consolidation, while the 100-day ($152.20) and 200-day ($142.90) averages demonstrate robust upward slopes. The golden cross configuration (50>100>200) remains intact, confirming the primary bullish trend. Price trading 4% above the 50-day MA suggests strengthening short-term momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD histogram turned positive on 07-29 after a bullish signal line crossover near the zero axis, ending a three-week consolidation. KDJ’s %K (82) and %D (75) surge from oversold territory with the stochastic clearing 50 midline – confirming renewed upside momentum. No divergence observed between price highs and oscillator peaks, supporting trend continuation.
Bollinger Bands
The 07-29 breakout occurred as Bollinger Bands contracted to 3% width (20-day basis), the tightest volatility reading since early June. Price closed above the upper band ($163.80), historically preceding extended trend moves in WELL. Band expansion has now resumed, targeting the 1.5 standard deviation projection near $169.
Volume-Price Relationship
Breakout volume (5.27M shares) exceeded the 20-day average by 68% and registered as the third highest since April – a robust accumulation signal. Distribution patterns are absent, with only one distribution day (07-28) in the past month. Volume surges consistently validate upside moves, such as the 2.16% gain on 07-14 (4.3M shares) and 3.53% advance on 08-06-2024 (3.94M shares).
Relative Strength Index
The 14-day RSI (68) avoids overbought territory despite the breakout, leaving room for additional upside. Notably, RSI hasn't exceeded 70 since April, preventing bearish divergence risks. The current reading matches February's peak (RSI 67) before a 14% advance occurred, though investors should monitor for resistance reactions near RSI 72 – the YTD ceiling.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the primary uptrend from the August 2024 low ($115.54) to the July 2025 high ($167.20):
- 23.6% retracement at $158.20 supported the July consolidation
- Breakthrough at 161.8% extension ($165.50) confirms bullish continuation
- Next targets align with 261.8% extension at $180.50 and psychological $175.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Strong confluence exists at $158-$160, where the 50-day MA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, and swing lows align – making this a high-probability support zone. All oscillators (MACD, KDJ, RSI) synchronize in bullish momentum initiation without divergence. The Bollinger breakout, volume confirmation, and MA alignment collectively suggest an 85% probability of testing $170-$172 in the intermediate term. Risk arises only if the price closes below $158, invalidating the breakout thesis.