Weddings, Travel, and the Consumer Downturn: Navigating Uncertainty in 2025

The economic outlook for 2025 is a mosaic of uncertainty, with consumer confidence wobbling and GDP growth forecasts split across optimistic, baseline, and grim scenarios. For industries like weddings and travel—sectors deeply reliant on discretionary spending—the stakes are high. Young business owners in these fields, who once thrived on consumer optimism, now face a precarious balancing act: adapt to a potential downturn or risk obsolescence. Here’s how the data stacks up.

The Weddings Industry: Cutting Costs, Clinging to Tradition

The wedding industry is already feeling the pinch. 85% of couples in 2025 report economic concerns influencing their plans, with 54% modifying original budgets and 43% reducing guest counts. The average U.S. wedding cost fell to $33,000 in 2024 from $35,000 in 2023, driven by cheaper engagement rings (lab-grown diamonds now average $5,200) and pared-down guest lists. Yet 78% still view weddings as worth the financial investment, prioritizing aesthetics over extravagance.

Gen Z and millennials are leading the charge in quiet luxury and old money themes (47% and 33% adoption rates, respectively), while technology like AI planning tools and QR codes gains traction. 20% of couples now use AI for tasks like itinerary design, up from 10% in 2024.

But vulnerabilities loom. Department stores (22%) and online retailers now outsell traditional chain stores like David’s Bridal for wedding attire, signaling a shift toward cost-conscious shopping. Meanwhile, tariffs on imported apparel and accessories—particularly from Mexico and Canada—threaten margins further.

Travel Sector: Resilience in the Elite, Struggles at Home

The travel industry faces a bifurcated reality. Domestic travel is struggling: credit card spending on airline purchases fell 7.2% in February 2025, hitting a six-month low. Airlines like JetBlue and Spirit have cut capacity by 4% and 15%, respectively, to protect profit margins. Business travel, once a pillar of growth, has slowed as corporate cost-cutting and remote work persist.

Yet international and premium travel remain strong. Overseas bookings surged 8% year-over-year for spring 2025, with premium airfares up 8% as high-income travelers weather economic headwinds. Major events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup and 2028 LA Olympics are projected to boost inbound tourism, though risks like visa delays and geopolitical tensions linger.

The sector’s long-term outlook is cautiously optimistic: U.S. travel spending is expected to hit $1.46 trillion by 2028, fueled by leisure travel recovery and luxury segments. However, airlines face headwinds from aircraft shortages, labor constraints, and a volatile stock market—the S&P 500 airline index dropped 15% year-to-date as of early 2025.

Key Risks and Opportunities

• Weddings: Businesses must balance cost-cutting with innovation. AI tools and QR codes could streamline planning, but tariffs and labor shortages (deportations are projected to rise by 100,000 annually) threaten supply chains.
• Travel: Investors should favor premium and event-driven travel (e.g., luxury hotels, event-related tourism) while avoiding overexposure to domestic airlines.

Conclusion: Adapt or Retreat

The writing is on the wall: consumer-driven sectors must adapt to a less flush economy. For weddings, the focus is on value—smaller gatherings, tech-driven efficiencies, and locally sourced vendors. Travel’s hope lies in high-margin segments and major events.

The downside GDP scenario—1.3% growth in 2026—would exacerbate these pressures, but even in the baseline case (2.1% growth), caution is warranted. Investors should prioritize companies with flexible cost structures and exposure to resilient niches. As one wedding planner put it: “We’re not canceling weddings—we’re just doing them smarter.”

In this climate, survival hinges on agility. For the young entrepreneurs navigating these waters, the difference between thriving and sinking may come down to how quickly they can pivot—and how deeply they understand the data.