Webull Plunges 11.13% Amid Crypto Strategy Shifts – What’s Fueling the Volatility?

Summary
• Webull (BULL) drops to $13.97, down 11.13% from $15.72 close
• Intraday swing of $1.56 (10.3%) between $15.48 high and $13.92 low
• Unusually high call option volume (179,844 contracts) signals bullish bets
• Crypto reintegration and $1B equity deal dominate recent news
Webull’s sharp intraday selloff reflects a volatile mix of strategic crypto moves, regulatory uncertainty, and heavy options activity. Despite recent bullish catalysts like crypto relaunch plans, the stock’s 12.32% turnover rate and negative PE ratio (-196.33) highlight a market grappling with conflicting signals. Traders must navigate a landscape where crypto optimism clashes with capital-raising concerns.

Crypto Reintegration and Capital Moves Spark Turbulence
Webull’s 11.13% decline stems from a collision of bullish crypto strategy announcements and capital-raising skepticism. Recent news of consolidating crypto entities and re-entering U.S. crypto trading initially drove a 11.86% rally in late June. However, the July 8th $1B equity purchase agreement with Yorkville Advisors triggered a 11% selloff, as investors questioned dilution risks. Today’s move reflects ongoing tension between crypto optimism and financial engineering concerns, amplified by unusually high call option purchases (179,844 contracts, 105% above normal) and a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.

Blockchain Sector Mixed as Robinhood (HOOD) Trails 1.83%
The blockchain sector remains fragmented, with Robinhood (HOOD) down 1.83% despite Webull’s crypto relaunch. While both platforms target retail traders, HOOD’s muted performance highlights sector-wide caution around regulatory scrutiny and macroeconomic headwinds. Webull’s 52-week high of $79.56 contrasts with its current $13.97 level, underscoring the volatility of crypto-linked fintech stocks in a risk-off environment.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with BULL20250815C14.5 and BULL20250815C15
• 30D MA: 13.0255 (below current price)
• RSI: 60.04 (neutral)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper 17.78, Middle 14.16, Lower 10.53
• MACD: 1.09 (bullish divergence)
• Kline pattern: Short-term bullish trend + bearish engulfing

Webull’s 14.16 Bollinger middle band offers critical support, while the 17.78 upper band marks resistance. With RSI in neutral territory and MACD divergence, traders should focus on breakout setups. For options, two contracts stand out:

• BULL20250815C14.5 (Call):
- Strike: $14.50
- Expiration: 2025-08-15
- IV: 98.83% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.4638 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.04697 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1308 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $30,012 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% down (13.27): $0.727
- Ideal for aggressive bullish bets with high gamma/theta, capitalizing on expected volatility expansion.

• BULL20250815C15 (Call):
- Strike: $15.00
- Expiration: 2025-08-15
- IV: 100.86% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.4067 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.04528 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1251 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $538,412 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% down (13.27): $0.27
- Suitable for volatility traders expecting a rebound above 15.00, leveraging high IV and liquidity.

Position sizing should be cautious given the 52-week low proximity. If 13.92 holds, BULL20250815C14.5 offers short-side potential; bulls should consider BULL20250815C15 for a rebound above 15.00.

Backtest Webull Stock Performance
The Backtest of BULL's performance after an intraday plunge of -11% shows a mixed result. While the 3-Day win rate is 55.37%, the 10-Day win rate is 60.33%, and the 30-Day win rate is 75.21%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short to medium term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 13.19%, which suggests that while BULL has a good chance of recovery, the potential for high returns is limited.

Act Fast: Navigating Webull’s Volatility with Precision
Webull’s 11.13% drop signals a pivotal moment for crypto-driven fintech stocks. The $13.92 intraday low tests critical support near the 52-week low, while the $14.50 strike price call options offer leveraged exposure to a potential rebound. Traders must watch the $14.16 Bollinger middle band and Robinhood’s (-1.83%) performance as sector barometers. For immediate action, prioritize BULL20250815C14.5 for volatility plays or BULL20250815C15 for bullish bets. A breakdown below 13.92 would validate the bearish engulfing pattern, while a rebound above 15.00 could reignite crypto optimism.