Webtoon's 26.5% Plunge: Earnings Woes and Strategic Uncertainty Spark Investor Exodus

Summary
• Webtoon (WBTN) slumps 26.49% intraday to $12.365, erasing 26% of its value in a single session.
• Q3 revenue growth of 8.7% to $378M falls short of $382.2M estimates, while Adjusted EBITDA collapses to $5.1M.
• Strategic partnerships with Disney and Warner Bros. fail to offset declining ad revenue and user metrics.

Webtoon’s stock is in freefall after a disastrous earnings report that exposed structural margin erosion and a weak Q4 outlook. The stock’s intraday range of $12.29–$13.30 underscores extreme volatility, with investors fleeing amid deteriorating core business metrics and unmet guidance. The company’s long-term IP monetization bets now face scrutiny as near-term profitability implodes.
Earnings Disappointment and Guidance Dampen Optimism
Webtoon’s 26.5% collapse stems from a perfect storm of earnings misses and bearish guidance. While revenue grew 8.7% to $378M, it fell short of estimates by $4.2M. Adjusted EBITDA plummeted 82.3% to $5.1M, and Q4 guidance projected a $6.5M loss. The core Paid Content segment stagnated with 0.8% growth, while advertising revenue declined 8.9%. Management’s admission of a 'minimum guarantee write-down' on content contracts signaled operational failures. Despite Disney and Warner Bros. partnerships, investors prioritized near-term cash flow concerns over long-term IP monetization potential.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Short-Term Volatility and Gamma-Driven Put Puts
• MACD: -0.256 (bearish divergence), RSI: 40.04 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: $16.33–$18.74 (price at 23% below upper band)
• 200D MA: $11.84 (price at 4.5% above), 30D MA: $17.59 (price at 30% below)

Technical indicators confirm a short-term bearish trend amid oversold conditions. The stock is trading near its 52W low of $6.75, with RSI at 40.04 suggesting potential rebound but MACD divergence indicating further downside. Key support levels at $12.30 (current price) and $11.84 (200D MA) demand attention. The 2025-11-21 $12.5 put (WBTN20251121P12.5) and 2025-12-19 $12.5 put (WBTN20251219P12.5) stand out for their high leverage and gamma:

• WBTN20251121P12.5:
- Strike: $12.5, IV: 85.56%, Leverage: 17.75%, Delta: -0.4887, Theta: -0.0063, Gamma: 0.2389, Turnover: 7,209
- IV: High volatility amplifies sensitivity to price swings; Leverage: 17.75% magnifies returns; Gamma: 0.2389 ensures rapid delta shifts with price movement.
- Payoff: At 5% downside (ST = $11.75), payoff = $0.75 per share. High gamma and leverage make this ideal for aggressive short-term bearish bets.

• WBTN20251219P12.5:
- Strike: $12.5, IV: 65.77%, Leverage: 11.83%, Delta: -0.4623, Theta: -0.0065, Gamma: 0.1527, Turnover: 639
- IV: Mid-range volatility balances risk/reward; Gamma: 0.1527 offers moderate sensitivity to price swings.
- Payoff: At 5% downside (ST = $11.75), payoff = $0.75 per share. Lower leverage suits conservative bearish positions.

Action: Aggressive traders should prioritize WBTN20251121P12.5 for its high gamma and leverage. Conservative bears may target WBTN20251219P12.5 for a longer-dated, lower-risk play. Both contracts benefit from the stock’s oversold RSI and bearish MACD divergence.

Backtest Webtoon Stock Performance
I attempted to pull Webtoon (ticker: WBTN.O) daily prices so I could identify every ­26 %-or-worse intraday plunge since 2022 and run the event back-test you requested. Unfortunately, the data source returned no records for that symbol, so I’m unable to proceed without a valid price history.Could you please:1. Confirm that “WBTN.O” is the correct ticker (and, if it trades on another exchange or under a different symbol, let me know).2. Let me know the listing date if it only started trading recently (e.g., 2024 or 2025), so I can narrow the retrieval period accordingly.3. If you have a different data source or your own CSV / Excel file of historical prices, you’re welcome to share it and I can ingest it directly.Once I have a valid daily price series, I’ll:• Detect every session with an intraday drawdown of 26 % or more. • Run an event back-test to measure average forward returns, optimal holding periods, drawdowns, etc. • Present the results in an interactive module so you can explore them visually.Let me know how you’d like to proceed!

Act Now: Short-Term Volatility and Strategic Uncertainty Demand Tactical Precision
Webtoon’s 26.5% plunge reflects a critical inflection point where near-term operational failures overshadow long-term IP monetization potential. The stock’s oversold RSI and bearish MACD suggest a potential rebound, but structural margin erosion and weak Q4 guidance demand caution. Investors should prioritize short-term put options with high gamma and leverage to capitalize on volatility. Meanwhile, sector leader Netflix (NFLX) remains relatively stable with a -0.5158% intraday dip, highlighting Webtoon’s unique challenges. Watch for a breakdown below $11.84 (200D MA) or a reversal above $13.30 (intraday high) to determine next steps.