WAXPUSDT Market Overview – 2025-09-21

• WAX/Tether traded in a narrow range but showed bearish momentum with a 0.4% decline from open to close.
• Key support found near 0.01935–0.01940; no immediate bullish confirmation observed.
• Turnover spiked during the 9:30–10:00 ET session as price dropped to 0.01916.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction, suggesting potential for volatility expansion.
• RSI hovered near 50 with no clear overbought or oversold signals, indicating consolidation.

The WAX/Tether pair (WAXPUSDT) opened at 0.01946 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01918 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 0.01957 (high) to 0.01916 (low). Total volume reached 10,044,490.0, with a notional turnover of $195,604.77. Price action was characterized by a gradual downtrend, with bearish momentum gaining strength after 9:30 ET.

Structure and formations showed a consistent bearish tilt, particularly from 9:30–10:00 ET, where a long-bodied bearish candle broke below key support near 0.01935–0.01940. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed around 9:30 ET as price moved from 0.01933 to 0.01916. Doji patterns were rare, but one small doji at 0.01941–0.01942 between 00:00 and 00:15 ET suggested indecision early in the day.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a slight bearish crossover, with price closing below both. The 50-period line was near 0.01944, while the 20-period was at 0.01942. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was near 0.01949 and the 200-period near 0.01952, placing current price in a bearish bias relative to longer-term averages.

MACD remained in negative territory, with a bearish crossover and a declining histogram, indicating weakening bullish momentum. RSI fluctuated between 45 and 55 all day, suggesting range-bound trading with no overbought or oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands narrowed in the early morning and expanded in the afternoon as price broke lower, confirming a potential breakout from consolidation.

Volume was concentrated in the afternoon session, particularly between 9:30 and 10:30 ET, when price dropped from 0.01933 to 0.01916 on heavy volume. Notional turnover spiked during this window due to the sharp drop, and no significant divergence was observed between price and volume, suggesting conviction in the move lower.

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the day’s range (0.01916 to 0.01957), 61.8% retracement came in at 0.01936. Price tested this level before breaking lower, confirming bearish bias. On the 15-minute chart, 38.2% retracement at 0.01939 held as resistance twice but failed to trigger a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described involves entering short positions after price breaks below a 15-minute 50-period MA with confirmation by a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing) and RSI below 55. The strategy closes the position on a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the short entry or upon breaking the 15-minute 20-period MA to the upside. Given today’s data, this strategy would have triggered entry at 9:30–9:45 ET and held through the afternoon drop. The trade would likely have exited near 0.01936, aligning with a 61.8% retracement level. This approach may be valid for short-term traders, provided volatility and volume confirm the breakdown.