WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) Market Overview: 2025-09-22

• WAXPUSDT closed lower at 0.018 after a sharp early selloff below key support levels.
• Volatility spiked overnight, with a 24-hour range of 0.01932–0.01781 and a large-volume breakdown.
• MACD and RSI confirmed bearish momentum, with RSI dipping into oversold territory below 25.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion as price drifted below the 20-period lower band.
• Turnover surged during the breakdown phase, but price failed to find buyers above 0.0182.

WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) opened at 0.01924 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.01932, and fell to a low of 0.01781 before closing at 0.018 as of 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10,696,595, while notional turnover totaled approximately $193,159.

The past 24 hours featured a decisive breakdown in price action, especially from 00:45 ET onward, as WAXPUSDT moved rapidly below the 0.0185–0.0187 support corridor. A long bearish candle on the 15-minute chart from 00:45 ET confirmed the bearish reversal, with price falling below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. This breakdown coincided with a sharp increase in volume and a divergence between price and momentum indicators, suggesting exhaustion at higher levels and renewed bearish conviction.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged around 0.018, where price found temporary consolidation. Resistance levels were previously observed near 0.0187–0.0188, where price had stalled multiple times before the breakdown. A series of bearish engulfing patterns from 00:15 ET to 02:30 ET indicated strong bearish sentiment. Additionally, a doji formed near 0.0181 at 05:45 ET, signaling a possible short-term pause or reversal.

Moving Averages

WAXPUSDT closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near 0.0187, with price currently below it. The 100-period and 200-period MAs are slightly higher, indicating a potential longer-term test of these lines should price recover.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early hours of the morning, aligning with the breakdown in price. The histogram showed a sharp negative expansion, indicating strong bearish momentum. The RSI fell into oversold territory below 25 at 06:00 ET, suggesting that price could experience a short-term bounce. However, the lack of strong follow-through buying implies a higher probability of a continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion as volatility increased during the breakdown phase. Price spent much of the session below the lower 20-period Bollinger Band, reinforcing the bearish narrative. A potential retest of the lower band could offer a short-term entry opportunity, but confirmation would be needed before taking a long position.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown phase, especially between 00:45 ET and 02:00 ET, as large-volume bearish candles moved price below key support levels. Turnover confirmed this breakdown, with large notional value traded during the selloff. However, volume has since subsided, and the lack of follow-through buying suggests a potential pause or consolidation phase in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high of 0.01932 and swing low of 0.01781, the 38.2% level is at 0.01844 and the 61.8% level at 0.01796. Price appears to have found short-term support around 0.018, slightly above the 61.8% retracement level. A close above 0.0184 could trigger a retest of the 38.2% level, but a break below 0.01796 would likely extend the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves a mean-reversion approach triggered by a breakdown of the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a MACD crossover. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance level, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The current scenario aligns well with this setup, with all three conditions met. A backtest over the past 30 days would likely reveal mixed results due to the volatile nature of WAXPUSDT, but the recent breakdown shows promise as a high-probability trade setup.