WAX/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-07

Summary
• Price climbed from 0.01054 to 0.01181, with a strong bullish reversal in the final 15 minutes.
• High volume spikes confirmed price action, especially between 03:15–05:15 ET.
• MACD and RSI suggest momentum is rising but not yet overbought.

At 12:00 ET, WAXPUSDT opened at 0.01054, reached a high of 0.01187, and closed at 0.01181 after hitting a low of 0.01046. Total volume over 24 hours was 45,628,507 WAXP, with a notional turnover of $509,938.

Structure & Formations

The price action showed a clear bullish reversal after a sharp decline in the early hours. A strong Bullish Engulfing pattern formed around 16:30–17:00 ET, as a large candle with a long lower wick closed above the previous low. Key support levels were tested at 0.01085 and 0.01092, with the price rebounding both times. Resistance levels were observed at 0.01107, 0.01116, and 0.01128, with the final break above 0.01128 confirming a short-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA during the morning hours, indicating a potential bullish crossover. However, the 50SMA remained above the 200-day SMA, suggesting medium-term bearish bias. A crossover of the 50SMA above the 200-day SMA would be a strong buy signal for longer-term traders.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a positive divergence after 16:00 ET, with the line crossing above the signal line. The RSI climbed into the 50–60 range, indicating moderate bullish momentum but no overbought conditions. A break above 65 could signal short-term overbought levels, warranting a cautious approach.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 16:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands widening as the price moved from the lower band to near the upper band. The final candle closed near the upper band, suggesting potential for a continuation or reversion to the mean depending on how the next few candles unfold.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 03:15 ET and remained elevated until 05:15 ET, with large notional turnover spikes at 0.01098 and 0.01107. Price and volume aligned well during the bullish rebound in the last 2 hours of the session. A divergence between rising prices and falling volume could signal weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% retracement level at 0.01116 was successfully tested and broken in the late hours of the session, confirming a continuation of the upward move. A breakdown below the 38.2% level at 0.01099 would suggest a temporary consolidation or pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong Bullish Engulfing pattern observed at 16:30–17:00 ET, this presents a clear example of the type of signal the proposed backtest would target. If applied rigorously using daily bars, the strategy would capture similar patterns on longer timeframes. However, due to the lack of 15-minute resolution in backtesting tools, a daily-based exit (i.e., next day open or close) would approximate the intended one-hour holding period. Testing this approach from January 1, 2022, to the present would offer insights into how frequently and effectively these patterns align with short-term price action.