WAX/Tether Market Overview – 2025-10-30

• WAXP/USDT fell from 0.01316 to 0.01266 in 24 hours amid declining volume and bearish momentum.
• RSI below 30 and MACD divergence suggest oversold conditions may not yet signal a reversal.
• Bollinger Bands show compressed volatility early on, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke lower.
• Volume spiked during the 19:00–22:00 ET selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• No strong support level held during the decline; 0.0126–0.0127 appears as key short-term floor.

At 12:00 ET–1, WAXP/USDT opened at 0.01296, reached a high of 0.01316, and closed at 0.01266 at 12:00 ET, with a low of 0.01247. Total volume was 10,154,061.7, and turnover stood at $129,469. The 24-hour move reflects aggressive bearish pressure and divergent on-chain behavior in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

The price action shows a breakdown from 0.0130 to 0.0126, with bearish engulfing patterns evident in the late afternoon to early evening ET hours. A long lower shadow formed around 19:00–20:00 ET as price rebounded briefly but failed to hold above 0.01305. The 0.0126–0.0127 level appears to be a temporary floor, but without a strong bullish candle to close above that range, the near-term bias remains bearish. A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent swing high sits at 0.01266, where the price closed. Further breakdown below that would target 0.0124, aligning with the low of the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price is below both the 20-period and 50-period EMAs, signaling bearish momentum. The 20 EMA is falling faster than the 50 EMA, reinforcing the downward bias. For the daily chart, the 50 SMA crossed below the 100 SMA in recent days, and the 200 SMA remains a major resistance level at ~0.0132.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover in the early afternoon. RSI has dropped below 30 for most of the session, indicating oversold conditions. However, the lack of a bounce from these levels suggests that bearish sentiment remains strong. A divergence between RSI and price is not yet visible, but the RSI’s flat behavior below 30 implies caution about a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands began the session in a narrow state but expanded significantly as the price dropped after 18:00 ET. Price has remained near the lower band for most of the session, suggesting continued bearish momentum. A test of the lower band could provide short-term support, but a close below that level would confirm a further breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late afternoon to early evening, especially in the 19:00–22:00 ET window, as price broke from 0.0130 to 0.0126. This aligns with a sharp increase in turnover, confirming bearish conviction. A divergence is visible later in the session when price briefly recovered near 0.01275 with minimal volume, indicating weak buying pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent high of 0.01316 and low of 0.01247, the 61.8% level at 0.01266 matches the 24-hour closing price. This level may offer some temporary support, but a break below it could lead to a test of the 0.0124–0.0125 level. On the 15-minute chart, Fibonacci levels from the 0.01303 swing high to 0.01269 swing low also suggest 0.01266 as a key psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent bearish price action aligns with the proposed backtesting strategy targeting Bearish Engulfing patterns. Using WAXPUSDT on Binance as the primary data source would allow for a high-quality dataset to identify these patterns between 2022 and 2025. Once confirmed, the strategy would generate sell signals on pattern detection and use a 3-day horizon for exit timing. The integration of Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels in this analysis could also help define dynamic stop-loss and take-profit levels for such a strategy. The RSI and MACD signals currently support the bearish thesis, which is consistent with the expected performance of a pattern-based short strategy.